It must have been my birthday yesterday, as I hit the double dinger and cashed +5.68 units. However, I'm not blinded by the lights. My eyes are set on the home run and the MLB player props board today, and I want more.
We're adding Kevin McGonigle to wrap up our slate as he offers the best value among Tigers bats vs. a homer-prone Dean Kremer.
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Wednesday, Sept. 2.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + combo.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Gunnar Henderson |
19% |
 Mickey Gasper |
13% |
 Kevin McGonigle |
15% |
| 💲Today's HR combo | 288.21x |
Home run prediction: Gunnar Henderson (19%)
I want any piece of the middle of the Baltimore Orioles order at 3.8x or better against Tomoyuki Sugano, and that brings me to Gunnar Henderson. Sugano has the 15th-worst HR/9 in baseball this season, and his xERA is 1.72 points higher than his actual 5.23 ERA. He gets just 32% ground balls and has allowed five or more runs in three straight starts. He has been a home run target all season long.
Henderson might not be Baltimore's hottest bat, but at this price, I'll take a 22-HR hitter who ranks third in slugging over the last two weeks and costs nearly double Pete Alonso's price.
Coors Field is the second-best HR park today, per BallPark Pal. Winds are blowing out to left field, and 90-degree temperatures should help the ball fly. If Sugano doesn't get it done, the Rockies bullpen can, with its No. 26 xFIP and No. 28 xERA on the season.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, MASN
Home run prediction: Mickey Gasper (13%)
This is the best bat over the last two weeks vs. a pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen, owns a 7.18 ERA since the break, and is starting because of injuries.
Mickey Gasper is slugging 1.077 over his last 11 games with five dingers over those last 14 days. His damage is coming vs. right-handed pitching, with 100% of his dingers coming vs. them. Since being called up, he is slashing .394/.565/1.121, which is ridiculous. Today's matchup should be circled for Mickey and all bettors.
Bryce Miller was demoted to the pen but didn't throw a pitch there because of other injuries. He threw a season-high 104 pitches in his last outing on August 23 and has given up a home run in all but one of his last 12 starts, with multi-HR games in 33% of those. Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball per ERA in the second half of the season.
I'd play this matchup to 5x. Neil Parker also likes some Boston bats to go yard today in his Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, Mariners.TV
Home run prediction: Kevin McGonigle (15%)
You can never go wrong by fading Dean Kremer for homers.
He is one of a handful of starters this year to allow four home runs in a game, and his HR/9 is the worst of any starter on today's slate and better than only 13 other starters in all of baseball.
Kremer gives up a ton of fly balls, with just a 37% ground-ball rate, and when that ball does go in the air, it leaves the yard more often than not, with baseball's eighth-worst HR/FB rate.
That makes this a price-shopping situation with the Tigers, and getting Kevin McGonigle at more than 5x is a no-brainer. He's 2-for-2 against Kremer in a small sample, but the bigger value is that he ranks the third-most probable Tiger to go deep while carrying a much longer price than the two bats ahead of him.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DSN, Twins.TV
- HR picks: 35-169, -9.12 units
Best home run combo for Sept. 2
| Gunnar Henderson |
Trade Now 288.21x |
| Mickey Gasper |
|
| Kevin McGonigle |
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