There are a lot of fun opportunities to fade and back a handful of arms this evening. Here are my three favorite MLB player props and MLB picks from Wednesday’s slate.
Let’s dig in!
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Slade Cecconi |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | -170 |
 MacKenzie Gore |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | -133 |
 Roki Sasaki |
Over 2.5 earned runs | +114 |
Strikeout prop: Slade Cecconi Under 4.5 strikeouts (-170)
My grandparents would be furious that I am fading a fellow Italian, but it has to be done.
Cleveland Guardians starter Slade Cecconi owns the worst matchup strikeout rate on Batters-Box current season dataset this evening as he takes on a red hot Minnesota Twins offense. The Cleveland right-hander has faced a poorly-rated strikeout matchup 22 times over the last three seasons, and during that span, he has gone under this number 54.55% of the time.
Over Cecconi’s last five outings, his strikeout rate has stayed below 16%. Meanwhile, the Twins have been absolutely humming offensively, posting an 18% strikeout rate over their last 21 games. During that stretch, Minnesota owns a 137 wRC+, .366 wOBA, and .842 OPS.
Batters-Box also has the Twins without a single hitter above league average in strikeout rate against Cecconi this evening.
I would alt this down to Under 3.5 for plus money. Do not take this any higher than it is.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, CLEG
Strikeout prop: MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 strikeouts (-133)
A team that has been nothing short of puke-worthy over its last 12 games is the Los Angeles Angels. Sure, they are a team we all love to take a few punches at from time to time, but during that stretch, their offense is posting just a 69 wRC+, 26.4% strikeout rate, and a brutal 4.6% barrel rate.
I think Texas Rangers southpaw MacKenzie Gore is in an all-time shove spot against this struggling Angels lineup. Six Angels hitters in their last 30 plate appearances own a strikeout rate of at least 23%. Over their last 60 plate appearances against lefties, five hitters are above 25%, with four sitting above 28%.
Gore owns an elite strikeout rating on Batters-Box. In a small sample size of seven elite-rated matchups, he has surpassed this prop in six of them, including two games with 10+ strikeouts. Home is where Gore has really shined, posting a 29.2% strikeout rate while generating a 29.9% chase rate out of the zone.
Over their last 12 games against left-handed pitching, the Angels rank dead-last in chase rate out of the zone at 40.3%. They also own the third-worst strikeout rate and contact rate against lefties during that stretch.
I might have to dabble on Gore to hit 10+ strikeouts this evening. I would not pay much extra juice for this number, so if the price climbs, I would rather look at 8+ strikeouts at plus money.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, ABTV
Earned runs prop: Roki Sasaki Over 2.5 earned runs (+114)
I think the Rockies are in a boom spot against Dodgers struggling right hander, Roki Sasaki. According to Batters-Box’s current season dataset, the Rockies own the highest-rated offense on the slate, featuring five strongly rated bats and four with elite ratings. Yes, the entire lineup is in a great spot against the Dodgers right-hander.
On top of that, Colorado has been absolutely humming over the last week, posting a 155 wRC+ over its last six games.
Sakaki in his last three outings he has an 8.53 ERA, 5.61 xERA and 1.74 WHIP. He is allowing hitters to produce nearly 54% hard hit and over 20.5% barrel rate during that stretch as well.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, COLR
- Prop picks: 277-520, -16.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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