It was a good start here yesterday with a 2-1 SU day for +1.35u. It’s a getaway day but there is not a lot of travel to look into but there are certainly some pitcher spots and leashes to probe.
These are my three favorite pitcher props for Wednesday, August 13.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 13
Teng u4.5 hits allowed (+100)
McGreevy u5.5 hits allowed (+105) 
Williams u5.5 strikeouts (+110)
Padres vs. Giants
The angle: He is pitching on short rest and might not have more than 70 pitches.
The move: Kai-Wei Teng Under 4.5 hits allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
The Taiwanese right-hander is coming off a five-inning bulk-relief role on the 8th where he struck out four and allowed three hits. He had one start before that on five days of rest and also struck out four on just 67 pitches with four hits allowed.
THE BAT is projecting a leash of 81 pitches today, but considering he is pitching on one fewer day of rest, 70 pitches is in the range of outcomes.
In the minors this year, he has 86 punchouts and 39 hits allowed over 54 innings and has some good metrics on his spin rate, swinging strike rate (12.3%), and is getting a lot of soft contact over a small sample this year.
It’s a getaway game for the San Diego Padres, so there is potential for some lazy ABs or perhaps a softer lineup. I wouldn’t play this much shorter than -110, but Oracle will help, and a possible four-inning outing on shorter rest.
The best price might come closer to first pitch.
Rockies vs. Cardinals
The angle: It's the Rockies on the road on a getaway day at plus money. McGreevy has also had a tough schedule.
The move: Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 hits allowed (+105 at DraftKings)
Somehow, Michael McGreevy’s hits market has hit 6.5, but the Under 5.5 at plus money is where you want to look.
It’s the Colorado Rockies who are also heading home right after this game as they’re opening a series vs. the Diamondbacks on Thursday. It is still the worst road offense in baseball, and a weaker getaway lineup isn’t going to help a lineup with zero depth.
McGreevy just blanked the Cubs at home and he might not see 90 pitches but this is the best way to fade the Rockies' offense today.
Yes, the St. Louis Cardinals starter is a hits/inning pitcher to date, but his last five games have been against the Padres (2x), Cubs (2x), and at Coors.
He allowed three hits over 76 pitches in an easy matchup vs. the White Sox earlier this year.
Marlins vs. Guardians
The angle: Williams is coming off the biggest workload of his career.
The move: Gavin Williams Under 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at bet365)
I’ve already hit his Under 17.5 outs (buy to -110) as I’m expecting a short leash or a dud from the Cleveland starter.
Gavin Williams is coming off a massive workload where he threw 126 pitches and lost a no-hitter bid after 19 outs in his last start. He was averaging around 92 pitches per start in his previous 10 games before that.
The Miami Marlins have been a scrappy offense since the deadline and are striking out at the 21st rate in baseball this month. It’s not a layup matchup, and betting on these angles is my favorite for pitchers.
The Cleveland Guardians are also in a tough playoff run, so pushing him with a great bullpen is not needed. I’d play this to -110/-115.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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