I cleaned up an ugly last week with a sweep on Friday and still love today's pitching board — even at noon. There are some tough spots today as the mercury is rising. But also keep an eye out for rain.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Tuesday, August 12.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 12
Suarez u17.5 outs (+140)
Berrios u16.5 outs (-115)
/o2.5 home runs (-105)
Phillies vs. Reds
The angle: Rough spot to pitch on the road and the price is right
The move: Ranger Suarez Under 17.5 outs (+140 at DraftKings)
This number opened at 18.5 but has flipped to 17.5 at great plus money. It’s a road start in one of baseball's toughest pitching parks, and Ranger Suarez does not come into this game in great form.
The Philadelphia Phillies lefty is 3-3 O/U to this prop across his last six starts, which is profitable at this price, and owns a 4.96 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP across those 35 innings.
THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches at Great American Ballpark, where the temperatures are going to feel higher than 90 degrees, and there might even be a stray storm that blows in. Play this to +110 with your MLB picks.
Cubs vs. Blue Jays
The angle: Berrios' pitch count has been on the decline in the Summer months
The move: Jose Berrios Under 16.5 outs (-115 at DraftKings)
Jose Berrios has averaged just 82.5 pitches per start across his last 10 games and has touched more than 91 pitches just once since June 4 — a stretch of 13 starts.
The Chicago Cubs offense rolls into Toronto on a cold streak, but the heat, coupled with Berrios’ form (5.71 ERA since July 1) and an open roof at the Rogers Centre, could help this visiting offense hang some crooked numbers.
The Toronto Blue Jays were also off yesterday, so the bullpen is reset and ready to eat some innings in a big series.
His leash is getting tighter with the importance of each game down the stretch, and THE BAT is projecting 15.45 outs on just 85 pitches. Play this to -125.
Cubs vs. Blue Jays
The angle: The pitching, the offenses, the heat, and the price is going to lead to dingers
The move: CHC/TOR Over 2.5 home runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Going a bit off script here for my third "pitcher" play, but there are going to be some dingers in Toronto today.
The conditions are prime with feels-like 100-degree temperatures with a likely open roof, and the offenses are going to take advantage with pitching matchups.
The Jays are tied for the league lead in home runs over the last two weeks, with 23 in 12 games, and get to face Ben Brown, who is back in the rotation because of an injury. His leash might not be long, and the Cubs’ bullpen ranks 22nd in WAR.
On the other side, Berrios has given up a home run in five straight starts for seven total over that stretch. Kyle Tucker, Justin Turner, and Nico Hoerner have all taken Berrios deep over small samples.
THE BAT is projecting 2.99 home runs today, and Derek Carty released three players in this game for a home run.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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