It’s a tough player prop market tonight, and finding three pitcher props today felt like pulling teeth. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or not, but I’m touching three different pitcher markets and heading in for the weekend.
These are my three favorite MLB picks for Friday, August 15.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 15
Kikuchi u17.5 outs (+105)
Cameron o4.5 Ks (-125)
Pallante o2.5 ER (+105)
Angels vs. Athletics
The angle: Kikuchi has been worked heavily of late but has failed to get 18 outs regularly. The setting isn't helping either.
The move: Yusei Kikuchi Under 17.5 outs (+105 at DraftKings)
The Under 17.5 outs market was not good to me yesterday, but I’m not afraid to dip my toes in again today on the West Coast in a good-hitting park in Sacramento.
Yusei Kikuchi is getting the ball for the Halos, who visit Sutter Health Park, which is one of the best hitting parks in baseball. Making it even easier for hitters today are the 90-degree temperatures and decent winds blowing straight out.
The L.A. lefty has hit this over just once in his last eight games. He has failed to get 18 outs despite throwing triple-digits in pitches, and his 312 pitches over his last three starts are the most in any three-game stretch of his career.
His road splits are also not favorable, as his 4.50 ERA away from where he lays his head is much worse than his 2.37 ERA at home. He has not gone 18 outs on the road since May 12 — a stretch of six straight road starts.
White Sox vs. Royals
The angle: The matchup and splits are in Cameron's favor
The move: Noah Cameron Over 4.5 strikeouts (-125 at bet365)
When digging deep for afternoon pitcher props, looking the White Sox way is never a bad look.
It will be Noah Cameron getting to rack up Ks vs the visiting Sox, who strike out at 24.3% on the road and at the exact same rate vs. left-handed pitching.
Cameron is not a K/inning pitcher but has been close to it at home with an 8.4 K/9 in K.C., and has hit the 5+ K mark in five of his last six home starts with the one outlier coming against the Dodgers.
The southpaw has a ceiling of eight Ks today, and THE BAT is projecting 5.3 on a low pitch count of 86 pitches.
Yankees vs. Cardinals
The angle: It's a bad pitcher in a good-hitting setting vs. a team that can take advantage of that
The move: Andre Pallante Over 2.5 earned runs (+105 at DraftKings)
I debated this play and Andre Pallante’s Under 3.5 Ks at plus money, but with the Yankees in town and it being close to 100-degree feel-like temperatures, I’m taking the runs.
The St. Louis starter is coming off a short outing vs. the Cubs, where he gave up six runs on just five total outs. He allows more than a hit per inning, can hand out free passes, and has terrible K stuff. He needs contact to get outs, and the setting is working against him today.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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