The San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals will begin a three-game series this evening in California.
The Royals are fresh off snapping a four-game losing streak with a win over the Cardinals. Meanwhile, San Francisco has had a strong run lately with four wins in its last five games. We expect a low-scoring affair.
My Giants vs. Royals predictions break it down below, as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet on Monday, May 19.
Royals vs Giants prediction
My Royals vs Giants best bet: Under 7.5 (-120 at Caesars)
I've been eager to find a prime spot to fade San Francisco Giants pitcher Robbie Ray. It's not that he's been bad. He's been solid and even dominant at points lately. It's more so that he's been lucky.
His ERA is slightly misleading, and his undefeated record is highly misleading. Some regression will inevitably come because the high strikeout stuff can only mask the barrel and hard-hit issues for so long, especially when he hasn't gotten excessive chase.
All that said, I can't see it here. It's the Ray Train for at least one more start, and the best way to back that tonight is the Under. I made this total just a hair above 6.5, so getting a complete run of value is appealing.
As mentioned, the most direct route to attacking Ray is exploiting his significant weakness of giving up too many barrels. It's why his two shortest outings this season came against teams with overwhelming barrel power at the top of the lineup in the Phillies and Yankees.
The Kansas City Royals aren't a team with much of that in the lineup; they rely more on combining hits than power. Entering this game, Kansas City has the fourth-lowest barrel rate in the majors and the seventh-lowest hard-hit rate. I'm confident Ray can control his part in keeping this a low-scoring affair.
On the other hand, Royals' Kris Bubic has gotten off to a sensational start to the season and will oppose the Giants tonight.
The 1.66 ERA is one of the lowest in the majors, and there are few things to dislike under the hood. He's unlikely to keep a sub-2.00 ERA, and the expected ERA exceeding three is a good reminder. However, my expected regression for him is minimal because of how well he's created swings and misses.
Bubic enters this matchup rating in the 75th percentile or higher in strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, and just behind that mark in hard-hit. Usually, when you're a high-strikeout pitcher, the caveat is giving up hard contact when batters can finally get a bat on the ball.
However, Bubic has been an exception, which speaks to his outlook for the rest of the season. The southpaw should be able to have a business-as-usual outing tonight against a team that both strikes out and chases at a Top-10 rate against lefties. With two strong pitchers having two strong matchups this evening, I'll take this Under down to a flat 7.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Royals vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Kris Bubic Over 5.5 strikeouts
Tyler Fitzgerald Under 0.5 hits
Given San Francisco's struggles with lefties, Bubic's six strikeouts are a reasonable expectation. As mentioned, he's started the season in an elite tier for getting Ks, and he's eclipsed this number in back-to-back games. I expect him to make it three in a row.
I finished off the SGP with Tyler Fitzgerald to go hitless. The young second baseman has a chase rate of 35%, ranking him in the Bottom 20th percentile of baseball. Facing Bubic will be a challenge.
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Royals vs Giants odds
Royals vs Giants live odds
Royals vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +110 | San Francisco -130
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-200) | San Francisco -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Royals vs Giants trend
The Giants have cashed the moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games (+5.85 units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Giants.
How to watch Royals vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, 5-19-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNKC, NBCS-Bay Area |
| Royals starting pitcher | Kris Bubic (4-2, 1.66 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (6-0, 3.04 ERA) |
Royals vs Giants latest injuries
Royals vs Giants weather
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