With their offense sputtering, the time is now for the Cincinnati Reds to turn their luck around at the plate and make a charge back towards the top of the NL Central. A hungry Angels team, led by Lucas Giolito, will stand in their way on Tuesday evening.
The MLB odds have the Angeles as -145 favorites but is it justified? Let’s break down Reds vs. Angels in our MLB picks and predictions.
Reds vs Angels odds
Reds vs Angels predictions
I know Lucas Giolito has looked bad – and I mean, really bad – at times this season. I realize his numbers since joining the Los Angeles Angels are not very good. With that said, I think we should cut the former American League All-Star some slack here and trust him on Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds.
In four starts with L.A., Giolito owns an unsightly 8.14 ERA. That will scare most off the Angels here, but you need to consider his three poor outings came against the Blue Jays, Rangers and Braves – three of the very best offenses in baseball. His other outing was a quality start with seven strikeouts against the Giants.
The Reds are hitting just .227 since the All-Star break with a poor 81 wRC+ and a high 27.5% strikeout rate. This should be Giolito’s easiest matchup since joining the Halos.
Giolito has never been a pitcher who has been able to induce a ton of soft contact, but it hasn’t mattered in years past when he’s posted elite strikeout numbers. He’s been less successful in that area in 2023 which has led to his downfall, but against a Reds team striking out this much I think he should look a lot more like the old Giolito.
With Graham Ashcraft sporting some dreadful expected stats, a competent Angels offense should be capable of providing Giolito with enough support to lead the home team to victory.
My best bet: Angels moneyline (-148 at Caesars)
Reds vs Angels same-game parlay
Angels moneyline
Giolito 8+ strikeouts
Trout 2+ total bases
This is one of my favorite SGP of the season.
We can bet on the home team here and get some very solid odds in doing so.
I will start with Giolito, who we discussed at length above. He’s in an excellent spot here to rack up the K's considering how poorly the Reds have made contact with the ball, and I like the spot so much I’m going to take an alt line and bet on him to reach eight punch outs. While he hasn’t struck out eight in a start since late July, he’s done so in five starts this season. If you want to be more conservative, he’s reached seven punch outs a solid 10 times, but I’m willing to bet on this one being an especially tasty spot.
Finally, we’ve got one of the best hitters in baseball in Mike Trout. He’ll be making his return from the injured list on Tuesday night, and while you may think he’d be rusty here I think he’s primed for a big night against Ashcraft. Righties are .290 with an .839 OPS off of him this year and Trout should see plenty of at-bats and plenty of pitches to hit.
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Reds vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I regret to inform you that while 44% of the bets on the moneyline here over at DrafKings are on the Angels, they account for just 27% of the handle. That would make L.A. the square side in this matchup, and it’s easy to understand. The Reds have called up Noelvi Marte in recent days and surely have plenty of talent on offense.
With that said, injuries have totally killed this offense and Ashcraft isn’t going to do them many favors. His walk rate sits up at 8.7% and his xBA over the last two weeks is at .250 – a below-average number. He walks too many and hardly strikes anyone out, making him minced meat for a competent offense.
I’d side with the Over here, if I had to choose. Giolito’s still prone to the longball and at a hitter’s park that could make the Under a tricky proposition. I do like the Reds bullpen but the Angels’ stable has struggled and would once again make the Under a sweat. I’m a much bigger fan of just laying the juice on the moneyline here with L.A., though.
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Trend to know
The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.75 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Angels
Reds vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Graham Ashcraft (6-8, 4.89 ERA): The right-hander has looked like a competent pitcher over the last two months with a 1.84 ERA in July and a 2.86 ERA in three August starts. His expected stats still look poor, however, and he’s allowed 20 baserunners in 22 innings this month.
Lucas Giolito (7-9, 4.44 ERA): Giolito’s ERA since coming over to the Angels stands above eight runs and he’s allowed six home runs in four starts. He’s managed to strike out 19 in 21 innings, however, and did earn a quality start a couple of weeks ago against the Giants.
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