The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees play the nightcap of Saturday’s doubleheader tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium, with New York carrying a 56% win probability on Polymarket.
Max Fried is ready to go for New York. Boston has not officially announced a starter, but the plan is expected to feature an opener before Brayan Bello handles the bulk of the innings.
Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees today: Yankees (57%)
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I’m backing the New York Yankees because the expected pitching matchup favors them at both ends
Max Fried owns a 2.81 ERA and has been one of baseball’s best pitchers at preventing damaging contact. He ranks in the 89th percentile in xERA, 99th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
The Boston Red Sox have not been producing the type of contact that typically breaks that profile. Its recent batted-ball numbers have generally hovered around league average or worse, while Fried can also force the issue on the ground with an 83rd-percentile ground-ball rate.
The Red Sox's bulk option for Brayan Bello has a much more vulnerable profile. Bello ranks in just the 7th percentile in xERA, 25th percentile in barrel suppression, and 37th percentile in hard-hit suppression.
I think this has value up to 60% with a better overall team who has a good matchup.
COVERS INTEL: Fried already dominated this Boston lineup once this season, throwing eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and only three hits allowed on April 22.
Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (51%)
Fried is the reason I’m willing to back the Under. Boston’s recent contact quality runs directly into a pitcher who ranks in the 99th percentile in barrel suppression and 92nd percentile in hard-hit suppression.
Bello is the volatility on the other side, with just a 25th-percentile barrel rate and 37th-percentile hard-hit rate, but his 90th-percentile ground-ball rate still gives him a path to limiting damage.
I expect New York to do most of the scoring, but Fried should keep Boston quiet enough to hold this below 7.5.
I like this to 50%.
Red Sox vs Yankees home run prediction: Ben Rice (18%)
I like Ben Rice. Bello throws his sinker 40.5% of the time, which lines up well with Rice’s strongest contact profile. Rice owns a .505 xSLG and 51.4% hard-hit rate against sinkers this season.
Additionally, the Boston arm also ranks in the 25th percentile in barrel suppression, so there’s a clear path for Rice to turn one elevated sinker into damage. His left-handed pull power only makes that matchup more appealing at Yankee Stadium.
- ML/RL bets: 46-45, +1.90 units
- Over/Under bets: 53-38, +16.49 units
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 45% | Yankees 55%
- Run line: Red Sox +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Saturday, August 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (5-6, 4.58 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (4-4, 2.81 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
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