The greatest rivalry in baseball history adds another chapter on Tuesday as the Boston Red Sox face the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series.
Boston has dominated the head-to-head series this year, and my Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks expect the visitors to take the first game of this best-of-three series.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 predictions
Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1?
The Boston Red Sox went 9-4 against the New York Yankees during the regular season and won all four meetings with ace Garrett Crochet on the mound. With Crochet backed up by one of the top bullpens in the majors, I like Boston to win as a slim road underdog.
Red Sox vs Yankees best bet
Red Sox moneyline (+115)
Both of these starters have been terrific, but I'll give the slight edge to the Boston Red Sox. New York Yankees lefty Max Fried has pitched to a 2.86 ERA with an expected ERA of 3.39 and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings through 32 starts.
Meanwhile, Garrett Crochet had a 2.59 ERA (2.93 xERA) with a staggering 11.5 K/9 across 32 starts. Crochet was even better on the road, where he went 13-2 with a 2.25 ERA. He also excelled against the Yankees, going 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in four starts.
Fried has had mixed results in the postseason, pitching to a 5.10 ERA across 67 innings and getting shelled when he pitched in the NL Wild Card last year.
New York's bullpen also hasn't been as effective as Boston's. This Red Sox bullpen was second in the majors in ERA (3.41) and WAR (6.9) while Yankees relievers were 23rd in ERA (4.37) and 21st in WAR (2.8).
The Yankees have the more stacked lineup, but Boston can also hit. I'll lean towards the team with the slightly better pitching at plus money.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
I'm backing Boston on the moneyline since I expect Crochet to have a strong game and limit this high-scoring Yankees offense. That's why it makes sense to add the Under 2.5 earned runs for Crochet to this SGP.
Romy Gonzalez comes into the postseason red-hot, batting .365 over the last month. The infielder has been raking with the platoon advantage all year, slashing .331/.378/.600 against southpaws.
Red Sox vs Yankees SGP
- Red Sox moneyline
- Garrett Crochet Under 2.5 earned runs
- Romy Gonzalez Over 1.5 total bases
Red Sox vs Yankees home run pick for Game 1
I'm expecting a pitcher's duel, but if I were to lean towards any hitter on their home run prop, it would be a Yankees player since Crochet (2.9 HR%) is more susceptible to the long ball than Fried (1.7 HR%).
Out of the Yankees' biggest hitters, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will have the platoon advantage against Crochet. I'll take the +340 payout with Stanton since he jacked 24 homers in just 77 games during the regular season and upped his productivity at home, where he slugged .657.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: Boston +115 | New York -135
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-200) | New York -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Red Sox are 17-3 in Garrett Crochet's last 20 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and Game 1 info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, September 30, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Garrett Crochet (18-5, 2.59 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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