It’s round two of a four-game set between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, and it’s starting to get a little weird.
You just wonder if the Red Sox simply have the Yankees’ number this season. Last night was a fairly good example of why.
New York controlled extended portions of the game but still was unable to overcome a late scoring outburst from Boston and dropped its sixth straight matchup in the rivalry. We can’t call a winner in this one, but we’ll be headed to the prop market for some value.
My Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Friday, August 22.
Red Sox vs Yankees prediction
Red Sox vs Yankees best bet: Brayan Bello Over 4.5 strikeouts (-105)
A New York Yankees team pressing and desperate to get just its second win of the season over its rival?
A Yankees team that has struck out more than ever over the last ten games, averaging nearly ten per game?
Yeah, this feels like a perfect spot tonight to bet on swings-and-misses from New York. We’re grabbing Brayan Bello to go Over a modest total of 4.5 strikeouts this evening.
A number that my projections made 5.2, and a number he’s exceeded in two of his last three games – he also went over this number with relative ease in the first matchup against New York earlier this season. It’s easy to understand why.
Bello’s K rate is relatively low, but the pitches on which he gets swings-and-misses are the pitches the Yankees struggle against the most.
Most notable of these is the changeup, where Bello boasts a whiff rate of 33% – a number near the high end of the league. That’s because the Yankees’ lineup has had some struggles against that pitch this season.
Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ryan McMahon, and Giancarlo Stanton will come into this game with whiff rates against the changeup well above league average.
Given that I expect Bello to go just over five innings in this game, this low number is well within his reach tonight.
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Brayan Bello might be a tough matchup for most Yankees hitters, but not for Cody Bellinger. The first-year Bronx Bomber is putting together a strong season, already launching 24 home runs, many in clutch moments.
And if there’s one thing Bellinger loves, it’s facing right-handed pitching. 17 of his homers this season have come off righties like Bello, making this a matchup that could tilt in his favor.
We’ll cap it off with Aaron Judge to get a run with capable hitters behind him. His inordinately high walk rate and the struggles Bello has locating the zone from time to time all make this a good value play.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Boston +158 | New York -185
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-130) | New York -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 43 games (+12.50 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Friday, August 22, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, AmazonPV, MLBN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (9-6, 3.23 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (13-5, 3.26 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
