Boston @ New York Picks & Props

Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Austin Wells will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Austin Wells are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Austin Wells will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Austin Wells's launch angle this year (21.2°) is significantly better than his 16.9° mark last season. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Wells's true offensive ability to be a .317, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .031 disparity between that mark and his actual .286 wOBA.

Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Ryan McMahon will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Ryan McMahon will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ryan McMahon has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 95.3-mph in the past week.

Jarren Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jarren Duran has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 96.5-mph in the last 7 days. Jarren Duran has put up a .333 BABIP this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jasson Dominguez in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The switch-hitting Jasson Dominguez will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Brayan Bello... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Jasson Dominguez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. In notching a .350 BABIP this year, Jasson Dominguez is positioned in the 91st percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello today... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Roman Anthony can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Roman Anthony has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 13.2% seasonal rate to 24% over the last two weeks. With a .370 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Roman Anthony is positioned in the 94th percentile for offensive skills.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Cody Bellinger will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Cody Bellinger tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Trent Grisham will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the past week, Trent Grisham's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 102.2-mph in recent games.

Connor Wong will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Fried in today's game. Connor Wong has been unlucky this year, notching a .212 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .295 — a .083 deviation. Connor Wong has put up a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, placing in the 81st percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ben Rice ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ben Rice is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Ben Rice will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Ben Rice will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Romy Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Fried today. Romy Gonzalez has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Barrel% of Romy Gonzalez has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.5% last year to 15.4% this season.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Alex Bregman will have an edge in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Alex Bregman tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried. Alex Bregman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last season's 90.9-mph EV.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Extreme groundball hitters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.5°, Aaron Judge has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23.2° figure over the past 14 days.

Paul Goldschmidt's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Paul Goldschmidt will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Paul Goldschmidt has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 93.5-mph over the last two weeks.

Jhostynxon Garcia is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Jhostynxon Garcia will have the handedness advantage against Max Fried in today's matchup.

Anthony Volpe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Anthony Volpe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 16.6% on the season to 42.9% in the past week.

Hitting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Carlos Narvaez will have an advantage in today's game. Ranked in the 82nd percentile, Carlos Narvaez has one of the highest average exit velocities in baseball this year (91.4-mph).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Giancarlo Stanton will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Giancarlo Stanton has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 17.2% seasonal rate to 41.7% in the last 14 days. Giancarlo Stanton has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.5-mph to 101.4-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the platoon advantage against Max Fried today. Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .311 mark is considerably lower than his .329 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Trevor Story's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Trevor Story will have the upper hand today. Checking in at the 87th percentile, Trevor Story has notched a .336 BABIP this year.

Nate Eaton will hold the platoon advantage over Max Fried today. Ranking in the 95th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.35 ft/sec this year, Nate Eaton is very fast.