The Boston Red Sox are still in AL Wild Card contention despite a bumpy year, and they start a key three-game series tonight against the Minnesota Twins.
Boston edged a tight weekend series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and my Red Sox vs. Twins predictions signal a similar grind at Target Field, with these two teams peppering the Under this season.
Check out my MLB picks and betting angles for this July 28 clash.
Red Sox vs Twins prediction
My Red Sox vs Twins best bet: Under 9.5 (-105 at Caesars)
There’s no escaping the numbers when it comes to the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins — they’ve both trended towards lower-scoring games in 2025.
Taking a short-term lens, the Under is 8-2 in Boston’s last 10 outings and 7-3 in that same span for Minnesota. Zooming out, it’s 56-49 for the Red Sox this year and 55-43 for the Twins. That’s the ticket I want with the line for the total sitting as high as 9.5 tonight.
The visitors just wrapped up a series against the Dodgers where all three games served up seven runs or fewer, and their past three meetings with the Twins have fallen short of a 9.5 total, too.
The pitching matchup offers pros and cons for this pick. While Boston’s Richard Fitts has posted an ugly 7.41 ERA across his last five starts, Simeon Woods Richardson takes the ball for Minnesota and has been lights out lately, with a 1.99 ERA in his past five starts.
Even if Fitts doesn’t have his best stuff at Target Field, there’s no guarantee this Twins offense will cash in. The hosts have scored three runs or fewer in each of their last four games.
I’m not expecting this to be a classic duel on the mound by any means, but I like the case for the Under here.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Red Sox vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9.5
Simeon Woods Richardson Over 3.5 strikeouts
Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases
The Twins have been careful with Woods Richardson’s workload this season, so he may not get beyond the fifth inning tonight, but I still see him dealing against an erratic Boston lineup. He’s cashed this Over in five of his eight home starts in 2025.
He may not stop Alex Bregman from getting on base, though.
Bregman had five hits against L.A. at the weekend, including a two-run dinger yesterday, and he’s 2-for-5 in his head-to-head battles with Woods Richardson.
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Red Sox vs Twins odds
Red Sox vs Twins live odds
Red Sox vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +107 | Minnesota -118
- Run line: Boston +1.5 | Minnesota -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Red Sox vs Twins trend
The Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Twins.
How to watch Red Sox vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Monday, 7-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, TWINS.tv |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Richard Fitts (1-4, 4.86 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.14 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Twins latest injuries
Red Sox vs Twins weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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