The Boston Red Sox roll into D.C. to kick off a three-game showdown against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
But don’t let the records fool you. My Red Sox vs. Nationals predictions see a prime opportunity to back the underdog. With the edge on the mound, Washington could surprise.
Let’s break it down in my MLB picks for Friday, July 4.
Red Sox vs Nationals prediction
My Red Sox vs Nationals best bet: Nationals moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)
The Boston Red Sox hands the ball to right-hander Lucas Giolito, who profiles as a strong fade candidate. Analytically speaking, Giolito has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season.
Entering this matchup, he ranks in the 14th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), sixth percentile in expected batting average (xBA), 21st percentile in average exit velocity, and 17th percentile in hard-hit rate. Not only is Giolito due for regression, but the bullpen behind him is, too.
This season, the Red Sox’s relief corps ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP). That expected regression could come to fruition against a Washington Nationals lineup that ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game.
Meanwhile, right-hander Michael Soroka takes the mound for the Nationals. While Giolito is due for regression, Soroka is due for positive regression, creating the perfect sell-high, buy-low opportunity.
Despite some inconsistent results, Soroka ranks in the 82nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, and barrel rate.
Red Sox vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
Nationals moneyline
Lucas Giolito Under 4.5 strikeouts
Nathaniel Lowe 2+ total bases
Continuing the fade of Giolito, he also ranks in the bottom half of the league in both whiff rate and strikeout rate. Furthermore, Nathaniel Lowe has fared well against him in past matchups.
Through 17 plate appearances against the right-hander, Lowe boasts a .294 batting average and .412 slugging percentage.
Red Sox vs Nationals odds
Red Sox vs Nationals live odds
Red Sox vs Nationals opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston -116 | Washington -102
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (+142) | Washington +1.5 (-172)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Red Sox vs Nationals trend
Washington has won 10 of its past 18 annual July 4th home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Nationals.
How to watch Red Sox vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Friday, 7-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 11:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, NESN, MASN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Lucas Giolito (4-1, 3.99 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Michael Soroka (3-5, 4.70 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Nationals latest injuries
Red Sox vs Nationals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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