Sunday afternoon will see the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves meet in the deciding contest of their three-game series at Truist Park.
My Red Sox vs. Braves predictions break down why the pitching matchup between Garrett Crochet and Bryce Elder heavily favors the visiting side.
Read on for my full MLB picks ahead of this 1:35 p.m. contest on Sunday, June 1.
Red Sox vs Braves prediction
My Red Sox vs Braves best bet: Red Sox ML (-130 at Caesars)
The Atlanta Braves have struggled with left-handed pitching this season. Through 55 games, the Braves are hitting just .221 against southpaws with nearly 500 plate appearances.
Making matters worse is how badly their best players are faring. Michael Harris is barely above the Mendoza line in same-sided matchups, while Ozzie Albies is hitting just .246, and Ronald Acuna, Jr has registered just one hit in eight attempts.
The Braves are also slugging just .359 in these matchups. Sean Murphy has four home runs to go along with three from Matt Olson, but the rest of the team has hit just five homers off lefties this year.
Garrett Crochet has been dealing this season for the Boston Red Sox, outperforming his xERA by more than a full run. He’s achieved this by having success against hitters from both sides of the plate. And in their meeting a few weeks ago, Crochet held the Braves to two earned runs, both on solo homers, and seven hits over seven innings.
Crochet is also racking up strikeouts at a high rate. His nasty cutter neutralizes right-handed hitters, paired with a sweeper and changeup that each have a whiff rate north of 40%. That arsenal enabled him to strike out eight Braves on the day.
Bryce Elder has pitched well at home this season, with an ERA of 3.27 vs a 5.73 ERA on the road. But he’s also had a fair amount of luck, overcoming a WHIP of 1.32 in games at Truist Park.
His metrics indicate someone who is prime for regression, given that he ranks in the 15th percentile in whiff rate, hard-hit rate, and fastball velocity. He’s been able to overcome this by coaxing a ground ball rate that puts him in the 85th percentile.
Elder has been hurt by left-handed hitters this season. Rafael Devers has already hit 10 home runs off RHP and is hitting .272 on the season, while Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran have also had substantial numbers with the platoon advantage. And both Devers and Abreu do a good job of getting under the ball, with Abreu posting a 41.2% fly ball rate.
Crochet is easily the better pitcher in this contest, and the Braves have yet to show they can consistently score against a lefty. I expect the Red Sox to get a strong start from their pitcher, while Elder doesn’t get his groundouts and struggles to get through five innings in his call-up from the minors.
Take the Red Sox to win the game as the Braves lose for the eighth time in 11 games.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Red Sox vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Boston ML
Under 8
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 H/R/RBI
While I expect the Red Sox to win against an underwhelming Elders, I don’t anticipate that we’ll see a high-scoring affair. Neither of these offenses is currently clicking at full strength, and both bullpens are above average. The first two games of this series have each seen six or fewer runs scored, and that’s a trend that should continue.
Rafael Devers posted a 0-for-4 game on Saturday, but this is a perfect spot for him to get back on the horse. He drove in a pair of runs in each of his previous two games, and is slugging .544 against RHP this season. He’s also smashing the ball much better during day games, and will have favorable weather conditions in a ballpark ranked as the fourth-best for left-handed hitters by BatX.
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Red Sox vs Braves odds
Red Sox vs Braves live odds
Red Sox vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston (-140) | Atlanta (+115)
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (+125) | Atlanta +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Red Sox vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves.
How to watch Red Sox vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Sunday, 6-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, FDSNSO, MLBN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Garrett Crochet (4-4, 2.04 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Strider (0-3, 4.50 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Braves latest injuries
Red Sox vs Braves weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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