It may not feel like it, but things may be starting to turn around for the Toronto Blue Jays. They have won three consecutive series and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is starting to hit bombs again.
The next step? Beat some division opponents. Toronto will get just that opportunity when they welcome the Boston Red Sox to town for a Canada Day weekend series.
The Jays will be moderate favorites for Friday night’s opener as they hand the ball to a resurgent Jose Berrios who has found his good stuff once again. The Red Sox will counter with Big Maple himself, James Paxton.
Can Toronto get the monkey off its back and secure a win against an American League East opponent? Or will their divisional woes continue? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in MLB picks and predictions Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays have quietly won six of their last eight games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit three home runs in his last six games. And despite playing nowhere near their potential, the Jays are in a wildcard spot. So, things are looking up for Toronto.
But before Jays fans can get too excited, there is one more hurdle they must leap over — play better against the American League East. Toronto’s in-division struggles have been well documented and at this point as the Jays are 38-20 against the rest of the MLB and just 7-17 vs. their own division.
So, securing a win in this series opener against the Red Sox would be a good start to help remedy that. So, too is handing the ball to Jose Berrios.
The Blue Jays' right-hander looks like the guy they traded for back in 2021. Berrios is pitching to a 2.74 ERA, a 3.89 FIP, and is limiting opponents to a .231 batting average over his last 14 starts.
Berrios has located his sinker much better this season, and mixing that with his slurve and four-seamer has meant a lot of soft contact. He ranks in the 78th percentile in average exit velocity and the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
The Boston Red Sox have solid numbers vs. right-handers this season as they are hitting just .231 and rank 24th in OPS and wRC+. Mix in the fact, that Berrios’ numbers improve at home (2.48 ERA, .221 opponent batting average) and he is set up for another solid start.
Countering Berrios is the Big Maple himself, James Paxton. The Canadian starter returns to the ballpark where he threw his only career no-hitter as a member of the Seattle Mariners. While he may not no-hit the Jays tonight, he can certainly have success.
Paxton has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox’s rotation. The lefty is pitching to a 3.36 expected ERA and ranks in the 91st percentile in terms of strikeout rate over his first eight starts of the season.
Even though Toronto has been more consistent at the plate recently southpaws are still giving them problems. The Blue Jays rank 19th in OPS and 15th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers this season. And we just saw a struggling at the time Alex Wood shut them out over five innings with seven strikeouts earlier in the week.
I’m betting on pitching being the story early on in this one and taking the Under five-inning total.
My best bet: Under 5 first five innings (-116 at SPORTS INTERACTION)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Under 5.5 alt 5 inning total
Berrios 5+ Ks
Verdugo 2+ TB
Shockingly, Berrios will be the theme for tonight’s same-game parlay. So, of course, we start with our best bet but we are going to juice it up a bit and take the Under 5.5.
Next, I’m going to add Berrios to record 5+ strikeouts. Now, the strikeout numbers may not be exactly what Berrios would like heading into this start, but five strikeouts are definitely on the table due to the fact the right-hander has been able to pitch deeper into games.
Berrios is averaging nearly 25 batters faced and just over six innings per start over his last 14 starts. And on the road, the Red Sox are striking out a much more average 23.2% of the time. Berrios has hit five or more strikeouts in 11 of his 16 starts this season.
And let’s close this SGP in an interesting way. I don’t expect Berrios to be perfect tonight and one Boston hitter who has had success vs. him is Alex Verdugo. The Red Sox’s outfielder is having a solid season hitting .302 with a .841 OPS and he’s 7-17 with a .563 xSlugging in his career vs. Berrios. Tack on Verdugo 2+ total bases for a +450 payout.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL East battle as a -135 home favorite and sit around -140 as of Friday afternoon. While the total has stayed put at the opening number of nine.
Now, the Blue Jays lost four consecutive games to the Red Sox at Fenway Park back in May but the moneyline feels about right for this spot. The pitching matchup is close to a wash with the Red Sox’s struggles on the road and the Blue Jays’ issues with lefties.
But there are a few edges for the Blue Jays here. First, Paxton was pulled from his last start with knee soreness after just four innings. That leads to Boston’s next issue, its bullpen. The Red Sox relievers rank 20th in xFIP and 27th in strikeouts per nine innings. Toronto ranks fourth and eighth in those categories respectively.
So, I would lean toward the Jays here up to -140. When it comes to the total, clearly I like the game to be low-scoring early, but the Boston bullpen could be an issue later on, so I’ll stick with the five-inning Under.
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Trend to know
The Under is 10-2 in the Red Sox's last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 in the Blue Jays' last five games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, June 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
James Paxton (3-1, 3.19 ERA): Paxton has given the Red Sox's rotation a much-needed boost. The left-hander has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in six of his eight starts this season and is striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings.
Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.60 ERA): Berrios has been the most effective he's been since his days in Minnesota. The right-hander has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 14 starts.
