Red Sox vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Toronto Pitchers Stuck In Taterville

Boston absolutely blew up Toronto starter Ross Stripling yesterday, and now faces a guy who is making his 2021 debut and has thrown just five innings in rehab starts all season. We're betting on another big BoSox night offensively — can the Jays keep pace?

Posted: Jul 20, 2021 10:06 AM ET Updated: Jul 20, 2021 4:30 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
J.D. Martinez Boston Red Sox MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The story continues to be the same for the Toronto Blue Jays: The young squad with big bats tends to feast on bad teams but the pitching just hasn’t been there against the league’s best.

That was evident last night when they fell behind 12-0 to the American League East-leading Boston Red Sox in the opener of this three-game set. The Blue Jays hope to bounce back in Game 2 but is there value in fading the MLB betting favorite?

Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on Tuesday, July 20.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Sahlen Field, Buffalo, NY
Date: Tuesday, July 20, 2021
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: Rogers Sportsnet-1, NESN

Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Toronto hit TwinSpires' odds board as a -130 favorite and is up a few cents to -136 as of 1:30 p.m. ET today. The Blue Jays are drawing 68 percent of moneyline tickets and 58 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 11 (Under -115) and is now 11 (Over -110), with 77 percent of tickets/84 percent of cash on the Over. "With a mix of public/sharp action on the Over, we’ll need the Under here," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Garrett Richards (5-5, 4.91 ERA): The “sticky stuff” crackdown has maybe had a little bit of an effect on Richards. The right-hander has seen his RPMs go down drastically and over his last seven starts,y he has pitched to a 7.11 ERA with opponents hitting .361 off him.

Thomas Hatch (0-0, 0.00 ERA): This game was supposed to be started by rookie sensation Alek Manoah but a slip in the dugout has landed him on the IL, so instead Hatch makes his 2021 debut. The right-hander had a solid 2020 pitching to a 2.73 ERA in 17 games but has missed the entire season to this point with an elbow injury.

Weather

There is some messy weather in the forecast in Buffalo. There is a 75 percent chance of rain around first pitch and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. If the game is played there could also be a 10-12 mph wind gusting in from right field.

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Red Sox: Christian Vazquez C (Questionable), Matt Andriese RP (Out), Marwin Gonzalez UTIL (Out), Matt Carasiti RP (Out), Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Blue Jays: Alejandro Kirk C (Out), Julian Merryweather RP (Out), Corey Dickerson OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-0 in the Blue Jays' last seven games when facing a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.

Moneyline pick

The Red Sox came into this matchup with the Blue Jays reeling a bit, having lost six of their previous eight games. But they were able to shake that off in the opener, jumping all over starter Ross Stripling early and never looking back in this AL East matchup.

The Red Sox looked more like the team we’ve been used to seeing all season, putting up 13 runs on 14 hits. The BoSox rank fifth in scoring, fourth in batting average, and sixth in OPS. Now, they go up against Thomas Hatch who is making his season debut.

Hatch uses a mix of a fastball, slider, and changeup and pitched fairly well against the Red Sox last season, allowing two runs on two hits in 4 2-3 innings over three relief appearances. But Boston looks like a different and more dangerous lineup this season and the Jays had to use seven relievers with Stripling only lasting a third of an inning.

While the Jays should have success against Garrett Richards (more on that in a moment), it’s hard to know what they will get out of Hatch. But he has only pitched five innings in his rehab assignment so you can expect a somewhat early call to the Jays bullpen and relying on a taxed bullpen (that is shaky to begin with) is never a good thing. 

With the lineups and starters close to a wash, the deciding factor should be the bullpens — and the Red Sox have the much better one. That edge and the value has us betting the BoSox tonight.

PREDICTION: Red Sox (+120)

Over/Under pick

The Over is just 5-5 in the 10 meetings between the Red Sox and Blue Jays this season but is 5-2 in the last seven contests — and we like the recent trend to continue. For starters, despite the O/U being an even 5-5 these teams have averaged 11 total runs scored per game in those 10 matchups. 

We’ve also already spoken about how the Red Sox lineup has a chance to be successful in this matchup, but so will the Blue Jays. Toronto ranks second in scoring and batting average and ranks first in the MLB in home runs and OPS. Oh, and they have owned Richards.

The Blue Jays have gotten to the Red Sox righty for 10 runs on 22 hits while drawing 12 walks in 16 2-3 innings of work over three starts. Combine that with Richards’ recent funk and the Jays should be able to do their part to send this one Over the number.

PREDICTION: Over 11 (-127)

Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting card

  • Red Sox (+120)
  • Over 11 (-127)

Picks made on 7/20/2021 at 10:36 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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