Houston, the Boston Red Sox have an Astros problem. The Astros have taken the first three games of their four-game set at Minute Maid Park, holding the Red Sox to just four runs so far in the series.
Can the Astros complete the four-game sweep when they hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi in the finale, or will the Red Sox provide value as a betting underdog and salvage a game with Martin Perez on the bump?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Astros on Thursday, June 3, with first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET.
Red Sox vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Thursday, June 3, 2021
• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet-SW, NESN
Red Sox vs Astros odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel pegged Houston as -142 chalk at Wednesday night's outset, peaked at -158 a few hours later, then dropped to -126 a couple of times. As of noon ET, the Astros are again at -126 while taking 61 percent of bets and 63 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total bounced around quite a bit, opening at 9 and reaching 10 overnight, and it's now 9 (Over -114), with 55 percent of bets on the Under and 57 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRed Sox vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Martin Perez (3-2, 3.55 ERA): Perez has been a pleasant surprise for this Red Sox rotation and is coming off a fantastic month of May. The lefty pitched to a 2.60 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .224 batting average over five starts last month.
Jake Odorizzi (0-2, 6.75 ERA): Odorizzi is making just his second start after spending five weeks on the IL. The right-hander struggled prior to the injury but was solid in his return, limiting the Padres to one run three hits over 5 1-3 innings of work.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Zac Grotz RP (Questionable), Ryan Brasier RP (Out), Matt Carasiti RP (Out).
Astros: Michael Brantley LF (Out), Kent Emanuel RP (Out), Bryan Abreu RP (Out), Pedro Baez RP (Out), Josh James RP (Out), Austin Pruitt RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in Astros' last six home games against a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros.
Moneyline pick
This was supposed to be a matchup of two of the best offenses in major leagues, and so far, just one has shown up. It has been a little surprising that the Astros have outscored the Red Sox 18-4 so far in this series.
Now, it will be on Jake Odorizzi to see if he can keep the Red Sox down for another game. The BoSox boast a dangerous lineup but they are definitely in a bit of a slump at the moment, scoring three runs or fewer six times in the last eight games.
But the key matchup in this game will be Martin Perez going against a red-hot Astros offense. Not only do the Astros rank first in scoring and team batting average, second in OPS, and strike out less than any team in the league, but they also smash southpaws.
Houston ranks first in batting average and fourth in OPS when it comes to hitting off left-handers this season. And while Perez has been solid, you can make the argument he hasn’t faced a good lineup since the White Sox back on April 18, where he gave up four runs on seven hits in 3 2-3 innings.
When you consider the way the Astros hit lefties compared to the Red Sox's current form at the dish, then you’ve got to side with the home team's odds in this one.
PREDICTION: Astros (-140)
Over/Under pick
Wednesday’s game was the first real pitcher’s duel of this series, with the Astros squeaking out a 2-1 victory, but sportsbooks are betting two of the best offenses get back on track in this one, setting the total at 9.0 for the fourth straight game in this matchup.
Not to take anything away from Houston’s rotation, but it is a little surprising to see a Boston team that ranks fifth in scoring at 5.14 runs per game and third in batting average and OPS, struggle to score so much in this series.
While Odorizzi looked good last time out, he had allowed nine earned runs in eight innings pitched prior to getting injured and the Red Sox rank fourth in batting average and OPS against right-handed pitching. And no matter how Odorizzi pitches he will inevitably have to hand the ball to a shaky-at-times Houston bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA and 19th in WHIP.
We’ve already laid out why we like Houston to score in this one and Boston should be able to do enough to send this one Over.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-110)
Red Sox vs Astros betting card
- Astros (-140)
- Over 9 (-110)
Picks made on 6/3/2021 at 12:15 a.m. ET
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