The Houston Astros have had the Boston Red Sox’s number in the first two games of their four-game set at Minute Maid Park, outscoring them by a 16-3 margin.
Can the Red Sox respond with Nick Pivetta on the bump for Game 3, or will the Astros clinch the series win as Framber Valdez makes his second start of the season?
Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Astros on Wednesday, June 2, with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Red Sox vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Wednesday, June 2, 2021
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Red Sox vs Astros odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonAs of 4:30 p.m. ET, Houston is out to a -155 favorite at TwinSpires, after opening -125 and initially moving to -140. The Astros are taking 57 percent of moneyline bets and 72 percent of moneyline cash. The total is steady at 9, with 68 percent of bets/58 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRed Sox vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Nick Pivetta (6-0, 3.86 ERA): Pivetta has been a big boost to the Red Sox rotation and has arguably been the team’s most reliable starter. But the right-hander has hit a bit of a rough patch, allowing four earned runs and seven hits in each of his last two starts against the Blue Jays and Braves.
Framber Valdez (0-0, 2.25 ERA): Valdez is making just his second start of the season after breaking his finger in spring training. The lefty limited the Padres to just one run on two hits over four innings in his first start and is coming off a 2020 season where he allowed three earned runs or fewer eight times in his 11 outings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Zac Grotz RP (Questionable), Ryan Brasier RP (Out), Matt Carasiti RP (Out).
Astros: Michael Brantley LF (Out), Kent Emanuel RP (Out), Pedro Baez RP (Out), Josh James RP (Out), Austin Pruitt RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Pivetta's last four starts versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros.
Moneyline pick
While this is a matchup of two of the best teams in the American League, the first two games have been kind of one-sided. The Astros have outhit and outpitched the Red Sox to this point in the series and you shouldn’t be surprised if that happens again in this one.
The Astros have gotten solid performances from Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia as the Red Sox have been limited three runs on 10 hits over the first two games of the series. Valdez has a chance to do the same coming off a season in which he pitched to a 2.85 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP.
While the Red Sox are one of the league leaders when it comes to hitting off lefties, they have scored three runs or fewer five times in their last seven games.
But the real reason to like the Astros in this game is the matchup between the Houston lineup and Pivetta. Though the Red Sox right-hander has been solid for most of the season, he has struggled in his last two starts. Those starts came against the Blue Jays and Braves — two of the best lineups in baseball.
Now he faces an Astros lineup that ranks first in scoring and team batting average, second in OPS, and strikes out fewer than any team in the league.
It feels like the Pivetta regression continues in this one, making the Astros the side to back at this price.
PREDICTION: Astros (-145)
Over/Under pick
The total is 9 for the third straight game in this series, with the O/U going 1-1 in the first two matchups. While it's a good number, we’re betting this one sneaks Over.
First of all, we talked about Pivetta’s struggles against a good lineup and the Astros are one of the best. On top of that, Houston is in a groove right now even by its lofty standards, plating 6.5 runs per game over its last six contests.
Second, even though Valdez is a tough matchup, it’s unlikely the Red Sox lineup stays down much longer. Boston ranks fifth in scoring at 5.14 runs per game and third in batting average and OPS.
It’s also unlikely Valdez goes more than five innings with this being just his second start off the IL. When his day is done, he’ll hand the ball to a shaky Houston bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-110)
Red Sox vs Astros betting card
- Astros (-145)
- Over 9 (-110)
Picks made on 6/2/2021 at 1:35 p.m. ET
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