The New York Yankees won a back-and-forth battle with the Tampa Bay Rays in extra innings last night and will now go for the series win in a matinee matchup at Yankees Stadium.
However, that will be easier said than done against Ryan Pepiot. My Rays vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks break down why there is value with the road team, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:05 pm ET on Thursday, July 31.
Rays vs Yankees prediction
My Rays vs Yankees best bet: Rays moneyline (-105 at Pinnacle)
Let’s just say it. I don’t get why this line is as close as it is.
Yes, the New York Yankees have won the last two games in this series, but the lineup is nowhere near as scary without Aaron Judge in it. Particularly for Ryan Pepiot.
The Tampa Bay Rays right-hander went through a stretch where he allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 of 16 starts, notching 11 quality starts over that span while recording a 3.12 ERA.
The 27-year-old has also handled this Yankees lineup really well, limiting current New York hitters to a .205 expected batting average and a .368 expected slugging.
Meanwhile, New York counters with Marcus Stroman, who has been inconsistent since returning to the Yankees’ rotation at the end of June.
The 34-year-old right-hander has a 5.55 expected ERA while surrendering a .280 expected batting average, which both rank in the Bottom 15% among MLB pitchers. And the Rays have been sneaky good vs. righties, with the second-highest batting average and the 10th-highest OPS.
The Rays show a lot of value today. I like them on the five-inning run line a lot as well, but at the end of the day, I think they walk out of Yankee Stadium with a win and series split.
Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Rays moneyline
Jazz Chisholm Under 0.5 hits
Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 hits
Jazz Chisholm is an ugly 0-for-11 with an xBA of .165 and an xSLG of .208 vs. Pepiot. Chisholm is also hitting just .213 with a 31.4% strikeout rate since the All-Star break.
Next up is Paul Goldschmidt. The Yankees first baseman at least has one hit in five at-bats against Pepiot, but the advanced numbers are worse than Chisholm’s, with a .131 xBA and a .140 xSLG.
Goldschmidt has also struggled since the break with a .226 average and a 30.3% K-rate.
Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees live odds
Rays vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +100 | New York -120
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-205) | New York -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 | Under 9.0
Rays vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have only hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 46 games for -22.20 Units and a -30% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rays vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 7-31-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-SUN, YES |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ryan Pepiot (6-8, 3.42 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Marcus Stroman (2-2, 6.09 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Rays vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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