The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays get a weekend series going this evening.
The Yankees have a recent stranglehold in this head-to-head series with four wins in the last five meetings. Although they come into this matchup as losers of two of their previous three, we expect them to keep that recent dominance.
My Rays vs. Yankees predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet on Friday, May 2.
Rays vs Yankees prediction
My Rays vs Yankees best bet: Max Fried to record win (+130 at Bet365)
Max Fried has been as good as the New York Yankees could hope to start this season.
He's now tied first in the AL lead with Tyler Mahle of the Texas Rangers in ERA. He's also tied with several others for the sport's most overall wins. He's been that good, and I suspect it will continue here, so I'll grab him at an attractive price to get the win.
Is this sustainable? Well, yes and no.
A 1.2 ERA in a single season would be some truly rare air, and a 3.59 expected ERA shows how lucky he's been. That doesn't account for the elite groundball rate he's induced, though. It also doesn't factor in Fried's historical pedigree. He's just one year removed from finishing a season with a 2.73 expected ERA, which placed him in the top 3% of baseball that season.
In other words, when Fried is at his best, his stuff is as good as anyone, and it gives you some confidence that his strong play will continue. However, all we're worried about now is this particular game. It's a good matchup for him.
Tampa's third-highest ground ball rate in the sport is a screaming beacon that Fried should have success. It's what he does best at this stage of his career, and his opponent having an issue with this particular thing is a great signal that he'll go deep.
We already have one data point from his earlier matchup this season against the Tampa Bay Rays: Of the 20 outs recorded on balls put into play, 13 were ground balls. He also finished that game, allowing zero earned runs and two hits. There's nothing that suggests that changes.
On the other side is Ryan Pepiot, who has had a relatively pedestrian season. I think the Yankees can get after him, and I'm not sure it will take much for Fried to get the necessary run support — after all, I expect him to be stellar.
That said, Pepiot's bottom 30% barrel rate is problematic, but more than that, a heavy reliance on the fastball is going to have Yankees hitters licking their chops.
I made the fair money line price on this game -215 in favor of New York, which is right in line with the market. You can certainly bet that. However, the value is here, as a heavy part of that price being so swiftly in the Yankees' favor is the expectation that Fried continues to shove.
Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Max Fried's record win
Aaron Judge home run
Based on my expected value, I did not see much value in my same-game parlay options. Thus, we are keeping it exceptionally simple.
Fastball pitcher? Barrel issues? Rinse and repeat: we're back on the Aaron Judge homer train. After a somewhat homer "drought," the MVP frontrunner has picked things back up lately with back-to-back games that included him going deep. He makes it three tonight in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees live odds
Rays vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +184 | Yankees -210
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-105) | Yankees -1.5 (+101)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rays vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+3.80 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rays vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York |
| Date | Friday, 5-2-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ryan Pepiot (2-3, 4.24 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (5-0, 1.19 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Rays vs Yankees weather
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