The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays clash at Fenway, with both teams coming off series sweeps. Boston’s moves two weeks ago have paid off, while the Rays have been good all season long.
While Boston is improved and playing at home, that’s not enough to justify making the Sox the favorite.
My Rays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks call for a Tampa win as the road dog on Thursday, May 7.
Who will win Rays vs Red Sox today: Rays moneyline (+101)
The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off back-to-back sweeps of the Giants and Blue Jays.
The Rays have won 12 of 13 and have allowed three runs or less in all 13 games, a franchise record and the longest such stretch in MLB in four years.
The Boston Red Sox are 6-4 since changing managers, but it's come against a soft portion of the schedule.
Rookie Boston starter Jake Bennett threw first-pitch strikes to 12 of the 19 batters he faced in his debut, but the Rays’ experienced lineup excels when behind in the count. They have a 121 OPS+ after a first-pitch strike and 128 when down in the count.
COVERS INTEL: Tampa’s bullpen extended its scoreless streak to 17 1/3 innings and has allowed just one run over the last 32 2/3.
Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
In addition to the hottest bullpen in baseball, Tampa has the third-best starting rotation. That’s masked a Rays offense that has scored five runs twice — and never topped that number — in the last 10 games.
Tampa starts converted reliever Griffin Jax, who hasn’t made it out of the third inning in his two starts this year but also hasn’t allowed a run in them.
Boston has hit better since the coaching staff turnover, but they’ve done so by posting a .340 BABIP, which may be an indication that it’s a random fluctuation more than a sustainable change in approach.
- ML/RL bets: 10-12, -1.52 units
- Over/Under bets: 13-13, -0.76 units
Rays vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Rays -105 | Red Sox -115
- Run line: Rays -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-189)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-118) | Under 8.5 (-102)
Rays vs Red Sox trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+13.20 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Rays vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Thursday, May 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Rays starting pitcher | Griffin Jax (1-2, 5.14 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Jake Bennett (1-0, 1.80 ERA) |
Rays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Rays vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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