Rays vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bradley Delivers, Tampa Bounces Back

A series winner will be declared today when the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays wrap up their three-game series in the Big Apple. 

Last night was a thriller, with Mets pitcher Kodai Senga punching out 12 pitchers and Pete Alonso winning the game with a 3-run walk-off homerun. It was the second time in less than a week that New York had scored 8+ runs, and the offense hasn't been much of an issue for them lately.

That said, they are still just .500 over their last six games. The Rays will come into this matchup one game shorter over their previous six games — winning just two of their last six. After an insane start to the season, Tampa has predictably come back to earth. 

I break down the matchup and provide the best bet in my MLB betting picks for Mets vs. Rays below.

Rays vs Mets odds

Rays vs Mets predictions

I saw a slight edge on my projection against the line we're getting over at BetRivers. I projected this line at -115, so while it's not considerable, there's still an edge against the number.

I also like the situational aspect of the Tampa Bay Rays coming off a loss. Overall, the Rays have the fifth-best record in baseball after a loss, with wins in 63% of their games, and that's a number that goes up when looking at the first five innings.

Back to the matchup, I wrote that there was a considerable pitching edge here, and it rings true. 

Taj Bradley is an unheralded pitcher so far, given his age. There are tons to like early, though. He has the sixth-best WHIP in baseball — matching Shohei Ohtani — and has done nothing wrong. One of the most significant issues for Bradley has been the random home run ball, so naturally, when handicapping him, you have to ask if his opponent can take advantage of that.

The New York Mets aren't void of power, but they don't have it in excess this season. There's also the aspect of the conditions in Citi Field today — they aren't conducive to power hitters. It'll be a cool afternoon, and while winds will be blowing to left field, that's the deeper end of the ballpark. According to BallparkPal.com, similar conditions have historically resulted in a 31% reduction in home runs. 

If Bradley can avoid the deep ball, everything sets up for him to dominate here. I get that he's a rookie and some of the early data can be misleading, but it's tough to ignore.

Especially numbers like a strikeout rate that's in the Top 5 of all qualified pitchers against a team that doesn't make overwhelming contact. Or the fact that Bradley's secondary pitch, the curveball, has posted elite numbers, and the Mets will send out a lineup that has one hitter batting over the league average against it.

The story in this game for me is Bradley and backing the Rays to score at least two runs in the first five innings. That's enough to cash given my high expectations in this game for him.

With that in mind, Tylor Megill is a worthy fade in this spot. His biggest issue at the most basic level is simply finding too many bats. That's a problem against a Tampa team with some of the best contact hitters in baseball and continues to lead the league in overall batting average.

We're getting a discount on a young pitcher that oddsmakers expect to regress. I don't see it happening in this spot and I will use it to my advantage. 

My best bet: Rays first-five moneyline (-104 at BetRivers)

Rays vs Mets moneyline analysis

Given my preference for the Rays early in the game, I also like them on the full-game moneyline. I just saw more value in the first five innings against my projections. There's a decent chance that this could be a blowout.

Famous are the last words of a baseball bettor, but this is an excellent matchup on paper. The Mets start a pitcher who struggles with giving up too much contact — no team makes more contact in baseball than the Rays.

The Rays start a pitcher who has demonstrated early signs of elite strikeout ability. While the Mets don't strike out much, they also don't make a ton of contact, either. 

With all that in mind, I'm diving deeper here. I placed .25 units on the two alternative strikeout totals for Taj Bradley of 6+ at +235 and 7+ at +500. Both of these numbers were available at FanDuel, and both were slightly off the market.

I also placed one more quarter-unit bet, this time taking Rays -3.5 at +280, also at FanDuel. I'm a big fan of this matchup, and we're hoping it pays off. 

Rays vs Mets Over/Under analysis

This total is about right to me, and given the previously mentioned weather conditions, I'll happily stay away. 

Given the offensive outburst we've seen in this series from both teams, there is a tendency to want to jump in the Over right away here. I'm not sold, though.

I won't be shocked if we get a lopsided scoreline, but with that comes the likelihood of an Under. I'm very high on Bradley performing well today, and while that makes me lean toward the Under, I don't want to double down on that thought process.

There's always the chance that a young pitcher gets rattled early in the game and is pulled; if that happens, there goes any chance of hitting an Under. I say all this to repeat what I said early on: I'm staying away from the total; there's just no notable edge for me. 

Rays vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Taj Bradley (3-0, 3.52 ERA): Bradley's ERA is slightly misleading. In a good way for him, though. There's the apparent disclaimer of him being a rookie who has made fewer than five career starts, but beyond that, the data we have is impressive. He boasts an expected ERA of under 3.00 and pairs that with a WHIP of .91. He's vulnerable to the random hard-hit ball and he did give up two dingers to the Astros last time out. Outside of that, he has some tremendous underlying metrics, including a K rate in the Top 2% of baseball. 

Tylor Megill (4-2, 4.02 ERA): Megill has found too many bats this season. Battors aren't chasing his pitches and an expected batting average in the 14th percentile of the league indicates he should be giving up even more hits. The determining factor for Megill's success is mostly if he can induce a ground ball. His rate is 43%, which is on the high end relative to the rest of the league. When those ground balls don't happen, Megill runs into trouble. May has been a rocky month for Megill, but he gave up just one earned run through five in his last start against Washington. 

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