After a gutsy performance from Clayton Kershaw in Game 5, the Los Angeles Dodgers are just one win away from capturing their first World Series title since 1988.
The Dodgers bounced back after their heartbreaking defeat in Game 4, but closing out the scrappy Tampa Bay Rays won’t easy, particularly considering they’ll be sending former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to the mound with their season on the line.
We break down the baseball odds with our best Rays vs Dodgers, picks and predictions for Game 6 on Tuesday, October 27 (8:08 p.m. ET).
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers betting preview
Odds to Win Series
Rays: +425
Dodgers: -550
Starting Pitchers
Blake Snell LHP (2-2, 3.33 ERA) vs Tony Gonsolin RHP (0-2, 9.39 ERA)
Snell was cruising in Game 2, until he wasn’t. The lefty pitched 4 2-3 hitless innings against the Dodgers, but then allowed four straight batters to reach base, allowing two runs, and that was it for the former Cy Young Award winner. Snell has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five postseason starts but has pitched more than five innings just once.
Gonsolin was Snell’s counterpart in Game 2, but only pitched an inning and a third. It has been a rocky postseason for the rookie right-hander, giving up eight runs in 7 2-3 innings, due mostly to costly walks and the long ball. However, Gonsolin has nine strikeouts and is limiting opponents to a .207 batting average.
Weather
Globe Life Field features a retractable roof and after being open for Games 1 and 2, it was closed for Games 3-5. With more rain in the forecast in Arlington on Tuesday, the roof will likely be closed for Game 6 as well. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
First Five Inning Runline Pick
This matchup has been back-and-forth all series long, and now the Rays once again have the edge in starting pitching for Game 6, and there’s no reason to think Tampa Bay will throw in the towel now.
Snell was clearly perturbed in Game 2 when he was removed from the game, so you can bet he’s not going to want to give manager Kevin Cash that thought in Game 6. As mentioned, Snell was cruising through 4 2-3 innings, not giving up a hit to that potent Dodgers lineup and more impressively, striking out nine batters.
For the Dodgers, this will likely be another abbreviated start for Gonsolin, (probably not much more than one time through the order) but with the “travel day” on Monday, it opens up plenty of options for L.A., most notably lefty Julio Urias.
That said, it will be interesting to see what Dave Roberts will do if Gonsolin gets in trouble earlier than expected. This Rays team is going to keep fighting until the end, and they set up well with Snell on the mound in this one. It’s hard not to like their value to have a lead through five innings of Game 6.
PREDICTION: Rays -0.5 First Five Innings (+155)
Total Pick
We finally had a World Series game go Under the total in Game 5, but Tuesday’s pitching matchup doesn’t inspire much confidence that we’ll get a second consecutive low-scoring game.
While Snell can be fantastic, Cash will likely pull him earlier than he should and hand it over to his bullpen. The problem is that the Dodgers’ talent and depth are getting to the Rays’ relievers. The Tampa Bay bullpen has a 4.03 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and is allowing the Dodgers to hit .264 during the World Series.
Meanwhile, Gonsolin undoubtedly has some terrific stuff, but there is no reason to think he won’t get into trouble again. Then things get interesting.
It appears Roberts is appearing to save Walker Buehler for Game 7. But there is a scenario where I could see him bringing in Buehler late to close out the game if they have a solid chance to win, but only if he doesn’t use Urias early. He needs one of them those two fresh in case this goes seven.
So, my bet is Urias follows, and the lefty has been terrific for most of the postseason, but he would be pitching on just two days' rest. And beyond him, the Dodgers’ bullpen as a whole has a 5.57 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and are giving up a.272 batting average to the Rays this series. We should get back to Overs in this one.
PREDICTION: Over 8 (-110)
Home Run Prop Pick
Not that Randy Arozarena was ever not “hot,” but getting one hit in three games seemed so bad considering the tear he was on before, and the one he is on again now. With another hit in Game 5, Arozarena broke the MLB record for most hits in a postseason with 27. The Rays’ rookie outfielder is now hitting .400 since Game 2 with two home runs and three RBIs, and has walked more than he has struck out.
Simply put, the kid has been laser-focused and incredible to watch. We’re not complaining, because he has been cash all postseason long when it comes to his player props. We’re betting he is again on Tuesday as we back him to go yard for a record 10th time this postseason.
PREDICTION: Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Home Runs (+403)
Rays vs Dodgers betting card
- Rays -0.5 First Five Innings (+155)
- Over 8 (-110)
- Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Home Runs (+403)
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