Team USA should be thanking their lucky stars for Team Italy, as the Americans needed the Italians to blow out Mexico to advance to the quarterfinals.
USA has lollygagged through the tournament until this point and are now matched up against an upstart Team Canada looking to get some revenge for their hockey brethren.
My USA vs. Canada predictions explain why caring more matters, at least with a runline this big. Those and more World Baseball Classic best bets for this quarterfinal matchup on Friday, March 13.
USA vs Canada prediction
USA vs Canada best bet: Canada +4.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
Whether it's not knowing tiebreaker rules, or the effort on the field, Team USA simply seems not to care as much as others.
They were up just 8-5 on Brazil heading to the ninth. They were losing to Great Britain in the fifth. And of course, they lost to Italy, thinking they had already advanced.
Logan Webb goes against Canada. He's good but isn’t a dominant pitcher, facing an underrated Canada lineup led by Owen Caissie. Canada counters with Mike Soroka, who’s capable of throwing good innings.
USA should win, but 4.5 runs is too many to lay with them.
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USA vs Canada same-game parlay (SGP)
Canada +4.5
Owen Caissie 2+ total bases
Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ total bases
Marlins fans should be thrilled with what they’re seeing from Owen Caissie. The top prospect is hitting .500 in the World Baseball Classic, with three doubles, a home run, and five RBI for Team Canada.
If Canada keeps this game close, Caissie has a hand in it.
One of the few guys who’s been giving great effort for the U.S. as been Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals star shortstop is flashing that amazing glove and is 5-for-14 with two doubles.
Kyle Schwarber star player prop
Kyle Schwarber best bet: 1+ RBI (+100 at DraftKings)
This feels like it could be a big Kyle Schwarber moment.
His power could be the difference for Team USA in this matchup, and he's coming off a season where he had a .904 OPS with 33 home runs and 86 RBI vs. right-handed pitching.
USA vs Canada opening odds
- Moneyline: USA -900 | Canada +550
- Run line: USA -4.5 (-125) | Canada +4.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
How to watch USA vs Canada and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, March 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| USA starting pitcher | Logan Webb |
| Canada starting pitcher | Mike Soroka |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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