The Mariners are just one game back of the Astros for the final wild-card spot in the American League and will look to inch closer to the postseason with a win over the Rangers on Friday night.
Can Bryan Woo deliver the goods, or will Nathan Eovaldi and the formidable Texas offense impose their will?
Rangers vs Mariners odds
Rangers vs Mariners predictions
The Seattle Mariners’ offense continues to be flat, posting a 95 wRC+ over the last two weeks to grade out as below average. They’ve now struck out in 25.6% of plate appearances over that period in time and for the season rank second in strikeout frequency.
The swing-and-miss has been a huge issue for Seattle. Considering its strikeout issues it should come as no surprise, but this team ranks second-worst in swinging strike rate. That has not really been a feature of Nathan Eovaldi games this season, considering he’s just below the league average in whiff rate and has fallen greatly from where he was in years past.
The Mariners own a .774 against ground ball pitchers this season, which again makes a lot of sense considering this team just needs to get the bat on the ball, and ground ball pitchers will afford that opportunity.
On the other side of this one, I have little faith in Bryan Woo to pitch a clean game here considering he’s been an incredibly flawed pitcher this season. He has pitched to a 4.39 ERA and while his expected numbers aren’t all that bad, his ground ball rate is below average and his strikeout rate is mediocre. Texas will do damage if it gets the bat on the ball and has thrived against fly-ball pitchers like Woo.
I do think we’ll get a high-scoring game despite the sluggish start to this series for both offenses.
My best bet: Over 8 (-105 at BetMGM)
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Rangers vs Mariners same-game parlay
Mariners games have been a cash cow for us this week, and we’ll go for our third straight same-game parlay win involving Seattle. While the previous two have focused on fading the Mariners, this one will be all about the offense.
Starting us off on the hitting side, Corey Seager is now 3-for-4 against Woo after he and the Rangers shellacked him just five days ago. Woo is a pitcher who relies heavily on his fastball, which is exactly what the left-handed Seager likes. Seager has posted a run value of 1.85 per 100 fastballs this year, which is the second-best mark on the team and one of the better ones in baseball.
Then, I am in love with J.P. Crawford here. Not only is he the only Mariners hitter I can stand to watch, but he owns a splendid 3.92 run value per 100 splitters this year, which is a pitch he will see a lot of against Eovaldi. Crawford has a hit in 14 of his last 17 games and is hitting .271 during that time with 10 extra-base hits. He should come through for us here.
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Rangers vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I do think that it’s smart to play the Over here and skip both sides, considering things got out of hand the last time Eovaldi and Woo met. In that game, which took place on September 24, both pitchers allowed at least five earned runs and the game ended in a 9-8 final, with Texas taking it. It came despite Seattle racking up 13 hits to the Rangers’ nine.
Now, I do think the Rangers are the right side of this line if you are looking to pick a team to back on the moneyline. They have been objectively better over the last two weeks, putting up a 107 wRC+ to Seattle’s 95. They’ve also walked a ton and struck out less than the Mariners, which could play a role in a game pitched by two guys who have struck out at guys more than the average pitcher.
While a modest 60% of the bets wagered on the moneyline over at DraftKings are on the Rangers, a stronger 73% of the handle is on the road team here. The total has the exact same split, with 60% of the bets and 73% of the cash on the Over.
Trend to know
The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games (+13.10 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners
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Rangers vs Mariners game info
|Location:||T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA|
|Date:||Friday, September 29, 2023|
|First pitch:||10:10 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Bally Sports Southwest, ROOT Northwest|
Nathan Evoldi (12-4, 3.26 ERA): The veteran owns a disastrous 7.41 ERA this month, mostly stemming from a brutal outing last week against the Mariners. He allowed five earned runs on six hits and two walks and has now allowed five home runs this month.
Bryan Woo (4-5, 4.39 ERA): The rookie has had two scoreless outings this month and two where he allowed at least five earned runs. He’s turned it up in the strikeout department lately, however, striking out at least six in each of his previous three starts for a total of 20.
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