Puerto Rico is set to take on Mexico in the WBC quarterfinals with what's easily the best pitching matchup we have seen to this point.
That’s because Mexico hands the ball to star southpaw Julio Urias, while Puerto Rico counters with right-hander Marcus Stroman.
Despite losing closer Edwin Diaz for the tournament, Puerto Rico will look to return to the semi-finals for the second straight WBC. Meanwhile, Mexico hopes to advance to the semis for the first time in WBC play.
I break down the World Baseball Classic odds and bring you my free betting picks for this quarterfinals matchup between Puerto Rico and Mexico on March 17.
Puerto Rico vs Mexico odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
| Puerto Rico | Mexico | |
|---|---|---|
| -110 | Moneyline | -120 |
| +1.5 (-210) | Run line | -1.5 (+170) |
| Over 7.5 (-120) | Total | Under 7.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 17, 2023.
Puerto Rico vs Mexico picks and predictions
First, let's set the record straight.
What happened to Edwin Diaz the other night was terrible. For those who don’t know, the New York Mets closer tore his PCL while celebrating his team’s victory over the Dominican Republic and he will now miss the entire upcoming MLB season.
Edwin Diaz appears to have suffered an injury during Puerto Rico's celebration pic.twitter.com/G9Md6SBrEj
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 16, 2023
However, anyone who says these games are meaningless and shouldn’t be played clearly doesn’t watch nor do they care about the growth of baseball.
With that out of the way, Puerto Rico will do their best to win this quarterfinals matchup for their injured teammate. Handing the ball to Chicago Cubs' ace Marcus Stroman is a great place to start.
Stroman is built for these moments, as some of his best career performances came with the Blue Jays in the postseason during 2015 and 2016. He was also the MVP of the last World Baseball Classic in 2017 as a member of Team USA.
The Stro Show might be an even better fit with Puerto Rico, however, and I don’t just mean it because of his fiery demeanor on the mound. The right-hander is an extreme ground ball pitcher and plays in front of the best middle infield in this tournament in Francisco Lindor and Javy Baez.
In his first start of this year's WBC, Stroman allowed just one run on two hits in 4 2/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Mexico finished at the Top of Pool C with a 3-1 record, which included an impressive win over the US,
Julio Urias will take the bump for his home country tonight, and the left-hander is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He pitched to a 2.19 ERA and held opponents to a .199 batting average last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, finishing third in National League Cy Young voting.
Urias was cruising in his first WBC start against Colombia before he got tagged for a three-run homer in the fifth inning of that matchup. Luckily for Mexico, his track record shows he won’t let that performance keep him down.
Both of these lineups have star MLB players on the roster, but they aren’t necessarily murderer’s row like the Dominican Republic or the USA. Pitching should have the edge in this one early on, and that means we're placing our first first-five-inning Under bet of the year.
My best bet: Under 4 runs first five innings (-120 at bet365)
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Puerto Rico vs Mexico moneyline analysis
This should be a really close matchup and the oddsmakers agree, making Mexico an ever-so-slight -120 favorite.
The lineups are very similar. Both have a handful of MLB stars with role players rounding out the lineups. Puerto Rico is led by Lindor, Baez, Kike Hernandez, and Eddie Rosario. Meanwhile, Mexico’s lineup is headlined by Randy Arozarena, Alex Verdugo, Rowdy Tellez, and Joey Meneses.
I lean ever so slightly toward Puerto Rico because of its motivation to win this one for Diaz plus the edge in experience when it comes to this tournament.
Mexico has also been the more inconsistent of the two teams, with a loss to Colombia and nearly suffering a huge upset at the hands of Great Britain.
Puerto Rico vs Mexico Over/Under analysis
A total of 7.5 is low for the WBC but is a standard total for an MLB game featuring good pitchers. As I broke down above, I like this game to be low scoring early, so I would lean toward the full-game Under as well.
High-intensity elimination games are managed much tighter and pitchers are given much shorter leashes. It doesn’t hurt that neither of these teams’ lineups features a ton of pop, as Mexico ranks 10th in the tournament in OPS while Puerto Rico comes in at 11th.
Don't be surprised if some small ball is used to generate runs in this one.
Puerto Rico vs Mexico game info
| Location: | loanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Friday, March 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Puerto Rico vs Mexico starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman: Stroman is a 31-year-old right-hander who uses a combination of sinkers and cutters to induce a lot of ground balls. He is coming off a quietly solid season with the Cubs, pitching to a 3.50 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Julio Urias: Urias is a 26-year-old left-hander who mixes a solid fastball with a slurve and a changeup. He is just hitting his prime and keeps hitters off balance by changing speeds fairly often.
