Freddy Peralta doesn't give the New York Mets enough of an edge over the visiting St. Louis Cardinals tonight to take the home team to win straight up on the moneyline.
New York is a -117 favorite, and my Cardinals vs. Mets predictions are fading the home team to find value elsewhere, particularly with the Over.
Let's dig in with my MLB picks on Tuesday, June 9.
Who will win Cardinals vs Mets today: Cardinals moneyline (+112)
The New York Mets have played better baseball of late, but I'm not champing at the bit to take them to win straight up at -117 in this spot. The St. Louis Cardinals are the better value proposition at plus money on the road.
This price reflects the pitching matchup more than anything, as Dustin May is pitching opposite Freddy Peralta. However, Peralta has been underwhelming in his first (perhaps last) season in Queens.
Compare his under-the-hood metrics year over year, and you'll see the Mets may have gotten hosed by the Milwaukee Brewers (whomst among us?) in their offseason trade (well, not really, as neither Brandon Sproat nor Jett Williams has looked that good). Last year, Peralta generated whiff and strikeout rates in the 83rd and 84th percentiles, respectively. This year, those have fallen to the 71st and 60th.
Additionally, Peralta saw a three-point Stuff+ dip and a slight drop in his Location+ from April to May, as his pitches simply aren't fooling hitters and he's not hitting his spots.
His 3.63 ERA isn't terrible, but it's worse by nearly a full run from a season ago, and his expected ERA is 3.79 with an expected batting average of .237 (both in the 57th percentile).
All told, he's getting hit more frequently and harder, and with bat-speed darling Jordan Walker waiting in the wings, I like the value in the visitors because Peralta isn't giving New York the edge implied by the price. I'd play the Cardinals to +105.
COVERS INTEL: Peralta's 14.3 BlastCon% is the highest it's been since it was first measured in 2024, meaning his offerings are getting squared up at top speed more frequently, particularly helping favor the Over 7.5.
Cardinals vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
With Peralta getting squared up frequently, and May similarly struggling to suppress scoring, we've taken our first step toward the Over 7.5.
And while Peralta's fly-ball rate is a reasonable 35.5%, that's so far below his career rate that it's reasonable to expect some normalization.
Lars Nootbaar and JJ Wetherholt are healthy, which only bolsters St. Louis' offense alongside Walker and Alec Burleson.
May boasts an average fastball velocity of 96.8 mph, which ranks in the 84th percentile. Pretty good! Unfortunately, his average exit velocity is 90.4 mph, which is in the 19th percentile. Not great!
With wind blowing out toward right-center, per BallparkPal, it's shaping up to be a long day at the office for these hurlers.
Mets outfielder Juan Soto has the best matchup rating on today's slate, according to Batters-Box. If the Mets stack lefty bats like Soto and the red-hot Carson Benge, May will be in trouble, as they've hit .299/.371/.448 against him this season.
I'd take the Over 7.5 as short as -145 or pivot to Over 8.5 at plus money around +120 as an alternative.
- ML/RL bets: 3-0, +2.88 units
- Over/Under bets: 2-1, +1.1 units
Cardinals vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +113 | Mets -117
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-178) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-113) | Under 7.5 (+108)
Cardinals vs Mets trend
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mets.
How to watch Cardinals vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, June 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV, SNY |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Dustin May (3-6, 4.59 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (4-4, 3.63 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Mets latest injuries
Cardinals vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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