I'm back on the home run beat after a short IL stint, but ready to hit the ground running with a home run slate loaded with great hitting conditions and some pick-on pitchers to cash some MLB player props.
The Cardinals are not a home-run-heavy team, but Lars Nootbaar is back in the lineup and bringing the power back, while the Rangers get a great HR matchup in Kansas City tonight, and I want prices better than +500.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, June 9.
Best MLB home run props today
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Lars Nootbaar
Josh Jung
Home run pick: Lars Nootbaar (+503)
There is value in Lars Nootbaar, who returned to the lineup last week and looks fully healthy.
Over a small sample, he leads the team in HR/FB rate (20%), fly-ball rate (71.4%), and slugging percentage (.700), while ranking second in bat speed at 75.7 mph. He has already gone deep in just 13 plate appearances and added a double after a rehab stint in which he launched three home runs. With 15-mph winds screaming out to center field, he’s my favorite St. Louis Cardinals target at this price in a favorable home-run matchup.
Freddy Peralta ranks 33rd among starters in HR/FB rate over the last month, which plays well with Nootbaar’s ability to get the ball in the air. The bullpen behind him has also been giving up home runs lately and is generating a lot of fly-ball outs.
Nootbaar is an everyday player who could even find himself in the leadoff spot, which would give him a chance at an extra at-bat today. It’s a play to +435. Ivan Herrera (+710) and Alec Burleson (+502) are also on the radar in this game.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Cardinals.TV
Home run pick: Josh Jung (+700)
Kauffman Stadium might not be the best home run park, but 15-mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures pushing 90 degrees create a great environment for dingers today.
The Texas Rangers have the better side of the matchup against Stephen Kolek, who generates plenty of ground balls, but when hitters do get the ball in the air against him, it tends to leave the yard. He's also making his first start after returning from the family medical emergency list.
Josh Jung at +500 or better is my favorite way to attack this spot. He ranks among the team's Top 3 hitters in power metrics and has recorded a hit in 16 of his last 18 games while posting a .930 OPS.
He also just faced the Kansas City Royals three series ago and responded with three extra-base hits while slugging .786 during the matchup. The Royals' bullpen adds to the appeal, ranking in the bottom third of baseball in HR/9.
Evan Carter (+830) and Brandon Nimmo (+538) also project as +EV home run plays, per the player projections at Covers.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, Rangers Sports Network
- HR picks: 13-105, -35.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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