I'm back on the home run beat after a short IL stint, but ready to hit the ground running with a home run slate loaded with great hitting conditions and some pick-on pitchers to cash some MLB player props.
While everyone is rushing out the door to bet dingers in the Brewers-A's game, the real home run value can be found at Coors Field today, and I'm adding Seiya Suzuki to my slate alongside Josh Jung and Lars Nootbaar from my earlier picks.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, June 9.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Lars Nootbaar |
+503 |
 Josh Jung |
+700 |
 Seiya Suzuki |
+390 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +22335 |
Home run pick: Lars Nootbaar (+503)
There is value in Lars Nootbaar, who returned to the lineup last week and looks fully healthy.
Over a small sample, he leads the team in HR/FB rate (20%), fly-ball rate (71.4%), and slugging percentage (.700), while ranking second in bat speed at 75.7 mph. He has already gone deep in just 13 plate appearances and added a double after a rehab stint in which he launched three home runs. With 15-mph winds screaming out to center field, he’s my favorite St. Louis Cardinals target at this price in a favorable home-run matchup.
Freddy Peralta ranks 33rd among starters in HR/FB rate over the last month, which plays well with Nootbaar’s ability to get the ball in the air. The bullpen behind him has also been giving up home runs lately and is generating a lot of fly-ball outs.
Nootbaar is an everyday player who could even find himself in the leadoff spot, which would give him a chance at an extra at-bat today. It’s a play to +435. Ivan Herrera (+710) and Alec Burleson (+502) are also on the radar in this game.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Cardinals.TV
Home run pick: Josh Jung (+700)
Kauffman Stadium might not be the best home run park, but 15-mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures pushing 90 degrees create a great environment for dingers today.
The Texas Rangers have the better side of the matchup against Stephen Kolek, who generates plenty of ground balls, but when hitters do get the ball in the air against him, it tends to leave the yard. He's also making his first start after returning from the family medical emergency list.
Josh Jung at +500 or better is my favorite way to attack this spot. He ranks among the team's Top 3 hitters in power metrics and has recorded a hit in 16 of his last 18 games while posting a .930 OPS.
He also just faced the Kansas City Royals three series ago and responded with three extra-base hits while slugging .786 during the matchup. The Royals' bullpen adds to the appeal, ranking in the bottom third of baseball in HR/9.
Evan Carter (+830) and Brandon Nimmo (+538) also project as +EV home run plays, per the player projections at Covers.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, Rangers Sports Network
Home run pick: Seiya Suzuki (+390)
I want a Chicago Cubs bat in Denver in today's MLB picks, with 15-mph winds blowing out to right field and temperatures pushing near 90 degrees.
It’s also a spot where Tomoyuki Sugano looks vulnerable, carrying a 7.58 xERA that sits well above his sub-4.00 surface ERA. This was a pitcher who had one of the worst HR/FB rates in baseball last season, and he wasn't even pitching at Coors half the time.
Seiya Suzuki at +390 projects as one of the top +EV home run options in this game, with a fair price closer to +300. He is part of a small group of Chicago hitters who have been swinging it well over the last two weeks, and he stands out with a price 150 points better than the others.
Even if Sugano manages to limit damage, the Colorado Rockies bullpen has been horrendous, posting a 10.20 ERA and 2.08 HR/9 over the last 14 days. Everyone might be looking at Las Vegas for dingers today, but the better value is in Colorado.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 13-105, -35.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Lars Nootbaar |
Bet Now +22335 |
| Josh Jung |
|
| Seiya Suzuki |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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