The MLB season is in full swing, and with it, all the prop betting markets that we’ve come to love/hate. As we do every day, we’re scouring the league for the best MLB prop bets for your Wednesday wagers. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
Today, we’re searching for Ohtani props on the mound and in the box, finding some value in a -313 favorite and hitting the Seattle bats facing a starter who has been off for 18 and a bad bullpen.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop picks and predictions for Wednesday, June 30, 2021.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 home runs (+330) Over 7.5 strikeouts (+105)
One of the biggest travesties in the MLB prop world is that when Shohei Ohtani is pitching, his offensive prop markets are limited. Lucky for us, we can still find his home run prop at some reputable books.
Ohtani has launched 11 homers over his last 13 games and belted two in New York last night to take the outright home-run lead. The short porch has been generous to the two-way star who has slugged three home runs over two games in New York to start the week. But will pitching slow down his home run tear, as he's expected to hit on Wednesday?
Over his 11 starts, Ohtani is hitting .313 with a pair of home runs in the true two-way role. Not too shabby at all and it gives us confidence in the +330 home run prop. The Yankees will be starting Domingo German who has given up 12 of his 14 home runs at Yankee Stadium this year.
Looking to get greedy, we also see a strikeout prop that is sitting at 7.5. Ohtani owns a 12.5 K/9 and has topped that number in three of his last four starts. He is coming off a nine-strikeout performance where his fastball generated a 40 percent whiff rate, his slider a 55 percent whiff rate and his splitter a 43 percent whiff rate. The Yankees strike out at the fourth-highest rate in the AL, which gives the Japanese pitcher a great matchup against an offense that has been average at best this year.
Seattle Mariners team total Over 4.5 (+116)
Toronto’s LHP Steven Matz will be making his first start after testing positive for COVID, albeit symptom-free. He threw 60 pitches in Buffalo a week ago, in an effort to get back up to game speed, but there is a good chance that the lefty won’t go deep Wednesday against the Mariners, leaving the gates open for the brutal Blue Jays’ bullpen.
The Toronto relievers have totaled 18 losses this year and have been beat up by the long ball as their 1.45 HR/9 over the last 30 days is nearly a half-run higher than their season mark. Even in their three scoreless innings in last night’s 9-3 win, the bullpen allowed five base runners in three innings of work and Seattle went 0 for 3 with RISP. It’s always a wild ride late in Toronto games, and even though they added reliever Adam Cimber, there still isn’t a lot of confidence in this unit.
Matz’s player props are off the board due to the lack of knowledge surrounding his ability to go deep, which has to be good news for the Seattle bats. With a total of 10.5 in a ballpark that has been more hitter-friendly than not, we’re taking a chance on the Mariners and hitting the Over on the Mariners’ team total of 4.5 at plus money — a number they have topped in six of their last 10 games.
Luis Garcia — pitcher to record win-YES (+100)
Houston’s Luis Garcia is the highest-ranked starting pitcher over the last month, per Yahoo. He is 3-0 with 31 K’s over 30 1-3 innings and 2.37 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while recording four quality starts in five turns. On Wednesday, he’ll face an Orioles team that has the AL’s 10th-worst SLG percentage over the last month and is scoring just 3.86 runs per game on the road this year, which ranks as the eighth-worst mark in all of baseball.
Baltimore did manage to hang 13 runs on the Astros last night, but nine of those came in the final two innings as the Houston bullpen got tagged for the second straight night by the O’s. Starter Jose Urquidy exited after 1 1-3 innings of work and the bullpen was left scrambling to eat innings. The ‘Stros will need Garcia to go deep after a heavy workload over the last two days.
Garcia didn’t pitch six innings in his first seven starts this year but has found a way to get deep into ball games of late, having completed at least six innings in five of his last six starts. With Garcia likely to get at least five and the Houston Bats getting to face starter Matt Harvey, who is 3-9 with the highest ERA among AL starters at 7.54, we’re liking the Houston pitcher to grab the win as his team is a heavy -313 favorite.
MLB betting card for June 30
- Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 home runs (+330) Over 7.5 strikeouts (+105)
- Seattle Mariners team total Over 4.5 (+116)
- Luis Garcia — pitcher to record win-YES (+100)
Picks made on 6/30/2021 at 8:30 a.m. ET
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