It’s a great day for MLB prop betting as all 30 teams take the field on a Wednesday that includes five matinee matchups.
The New York Yankees look to stay red-hot against the rival Boston Red Rox, but the only problem is they hand the ball to dinger machine Andrew Heaney. And can Lance Lynn continue to cash five-inning bets for the Chicago White Sox as when they host the Oakland A’s?
We break down and pick these games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for August 18.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Andrew Heaney Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-120)
The Yankees have won five straight games since getting walked off in a cornfield last week, including sweeping a doubleheader with the hated Red Sox yesterday.
The Yankees are now 13-4 in the month of August to pull into a tie for the top wild-card spot in the American League. But the Yanks still have a problem — letting Andrew Heaney continue to take a turn in the rotation.
Heaney has been absolutely lit up since coming over to the Yankees from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline. The lefty is pitching to a 9.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over his first three starts in pinstripes but has really had trouble with the long ball, surrendering eight dingers so far.
Next up is a BoSox lineup that has crushed southpaws all season long. Boston ranks third in batting average and fifth in OPS when it comes to facing left-handed pitching this season. The Red Sox will be motivated to bounce back after losing both games yesterday and will try to jump on Heaney early.
Brewers-Cardinals Under 3.5 Five-Inning Total (-130)
The Milwaukee Brewers are running away with the National League Central thanks in large part to some outstanding starting pitching. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes may get most of the headlines but don’t overlook Freddy Peralta.
Peralta’s All-Star selection was well-deserved. The right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 5 and is pitching to a 1.85 ERA, while limiting opponents to a ridiculous .134 batting average in his 15 starts since then.
Now he faces a St. Louis Cardinals team that really struggles against right-handed pitching and was shut out in yesterday’s matchup. The Cards rank 17th in batting average and 21st in OPS when facing right-handers this season. Peralta also shut out St. Louis on one hit over seven innings back in May.
If there is something for the Cardinals to look forward to, it’s that ace Jack Flaherty is back. The right-hander looked excellent in his first start since May 31, shutting out the Royals on two hits over six innings.
Prior to his injury, Flaherty also shut out the Brewers on four hits in six innings pitched and while the Brewers have been better at the dish in the second half, they still rank 25th in batting average. This number is low, but not low enough. Take the Under first five.
White Sox -0.5 Five-Inning Runline (-130)
The White Sox look like the class of the American League at the moment and starting pitching has been a big part of that. And that all begins with Lynn. The right-hander is having a fantastic first season with the South Siders, pitching to a 2.26 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and is limiting opponents to a .200 batting average.
Now, he takes on an Athletics team that is in a bit of a funk, losing four of their last five games and ranks 19th in MLB when it comes to batting average against right-handed pitchers.
Lynn is also backed up by a lineup that ranks fifth in scoring, sixth in average, and eighth in OPS. They face a starter in Cole Irvin who ranks in the bottom 15th percentile in MLB in expected batting average and strikeout percentage.
Lynn’s effectiveness combined with a potent offense has made him one of the most profitable first five moneyline pitchers in baseball this season, going 16-2-2 in his 20 starts. We think he keeps that trend in this one.
MLB betting card for August 18
- Andrew Heaney Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-120)
- MIL-STL Under 3.5 Five-Inning Total (-130)
- White Sox -0.5 Five-Inning Runline (-130)
Picks made on 8/18/2021 at 11:10 a.m. ET
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