When it comes to MLB player props today, we are playing hot and cold. That’s because we’re looking at one of the hottest hitters in baseball and one of the coldest while finding you the best bet for both.
Dodgers designated hitter J.D. Martinez will look to extend his 12-game hitting streak to lucky No. 13 when he digs in against the Nationals, while Mariners' slugger Teoscar Hernandez is having a home stand to forget with the Yankees coming to town.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB prop picks for these and more for Monday, May 29.
MLB props for May 29
- Kopech Under 17.5 outs
- Martinez Over 1.5 TB
- Hernandez Under 0.5 hits
Picks made on 5/29/2023 at 1:55 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some MLB action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB same-game parlay at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best promo codes for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Kopech Crushed
Michael Kopech has put together impressive back-to-back starts, but things might be a little tougher when he takes the ball tonight against the visiting Los Angeles Angels.
Kopech hasn’t allowed an earned run on just three hits while striking out 19 over his last 15 innings. The one caveat there is that he did that against the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals — two of the worst teams in baseball when it comes to going up against right-handed pitchers.
Despite those stand-out performances, Kopech is still pitching to a below-average 5.03 expected ERA while surrendering a .461 opponent-expected slugging percentage. He also has issues handing out free passes ranking in the 18th percentile regarding walk rate.
Tonight, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the Halos are the type of team that can take advantage of those mistakes. The Angels rank ninth in batting average, and 12th in OPS and wRC+ when facing off against RHP this season.
Kopech made one start against L.A. last season that lasted 5 1/3 innings while allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits. Kopech’s outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5 and he’s gone Under that number in half of his 10 starts. The times he has gone Over have come against the Guardians, Royals, Reds, Twins, and Pirates.
So basically, Kopech is performing well against bad lineups and not so well against good ones. The Angels are a good one.
Michael Kopech prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-120)
Prop bet #2: JD Shore
J.D. Martinez is one of the most locked-in hitters in baseball at the moment and he’ll look to keep swinging a hot stick when the Los Angeles Dodgers open a three-game set with the Washington Nationals.
Martinez’s tenure in Dodger Blue was a little hit-or-miss through the first six weeks of the season but now he is looking much more like the guy who was an All-Star in four of his last seasons in Boston. The Dodgers’ DH is currently in the midst of a 12-game hitting streak where he sports a .340 batting average and 1.044 OPS over that stretch, including nine extra-base hits.
Tonight, he’ll look to make it lucky No. 13 when he digs in against Nationals’ everyman starter Trevor Williams.
What you see is what you get with Williams. He’s a guy the Nationals would like five innings out of every start while probably giving up a handful of runs at the same time. The right hander is pitching to a 5.16 expected ERA while surrendering a .268 expected batting average and a .507 expected slugging percentage.
Then Williams will hand the ball off to a bullpen that ranks 23rd in ERA, 25th in WHIP, and 27th in opponent BA. Martinez is red-hot and has gone Over 1.5 total bases in nine of his last 10 games. At plus money, I’m backing him to do so once again.
J.D. Martinez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Prop bet #3: Horrendous Hernandez
The Seattle Mariners traded for Teoscar Hernandez to give their lineup some more pop, but that hasn’t really happened so far as Hernandez has started the season in a slump, and the Mariners rank 26th in batting average and 24th in OPS. Hernandez gets a tough matchup tonight against Domingo German and the New York Yankees.
The outfielder is hitting just .233 with a .672 OPS this season and has only whacked two dingers in the month of May. He also ranks in the Bottom 4% in both strikeout and walk rate. Hernandez is also in the middle of an ugly home stand, going just 4-for-27 in the first seven games. That’s an ugly .148 average with 10 strikeouts.
Tonight, he’ll face off against German, who makes his first start since getting caught with “sticky stuff” on his hands vs. the Toronto Blue Jays back on May 16.
German is pitching to a 3.96 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .231 expected batting average and striking out more than a batter an inning. He has also dominated Hernandez from his time in Toronto, where the slugger had one hit in 11 career at-bats (.091) vs. German with five strikeouts.
Mix in a Yankees’ bullpen that ranks first in MLB in ERA and third in opponent batting average, and I’m betting Hernandez has an 0-fer day at the plate.
Teoscar Hernandez prop: Under 0.5 hits (+130)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
