Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: It All Adds Up for Adley

Prop bet #1: What a Rutsch

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the most talented young cores in baseball, and the returns this season have been fantastic. The Orioles head into tonight’s matchup vs. the Kansas City Royals with a 38-24 record, and one of the catalysts of that is catcher Adley Rutschman.

Rutschman is already a cornerstone of the Orioles lineup and comes into this game hitting .281 with a .825 OPS, but he’s been even more locked in on lately. Over the last 10 games, Rutschman is hitting .368 with a .916 OPS while only striking out six times in 42 plate appearances.

Tonight, he’ll dig in against Royals starter Daniel Lynch. The lefty-hander is making just his third start of the season after suffering a shoulder strain in Spring Training. His first two starts have been solid, but those were against the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals. 

Lynch is coming off a season where he pitched to a 5.07 expected ERA and gave up a .277 expected slugging percentage. And Rutschman is at least responsible for a small amount of that damage.

Rutschman only has three career at-bats vs. Lynch, but has managed two hits (including a double). He is also hitting .297 with a .796 OPS when hitting from the right side this season. The +155 price tag makes taking the Over 1.5 total bases for Rutschman a no-brainer.

Adley Rutschman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+155)

Prop bet #2: Betts believe

Mookie Betts may not get mentioned in as many conversations as he used to in regard to the best player in baseball, but for my money, he’s still not far removed. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder is a stud, and his name should be synonymous with production. And that production should be on display tonight when he takes on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Betts is having another outstanding season with the Dodgers, becoming one of their best run producers in the process. He is currently the third favorite in the National League MVP odds at +1,200. Betts enters tonight’s game hitting .257 with an .898 OPS, which includes 16 home runs and 37 RBIs. And his 48 runs scored are the second most in the NL.

Tonight, he faces off against the Phillies' Ranger Suarez. After a solid 2022 season, 2023 has not gone as smoothly for Suarez. The 27-year-old left-hander is pitching to a 5.06 xERA and is surrendering a .308 expected batting average to opponents. He probably isn’t looking forward to seeing Betts.

Even in limited at-bats, Betts has hammered Suarez. He is 3-for-6 in his career vs. Suarez with a double and two dingers. That’s good for a .707 xSLG%. 

Betts’ numbers also improve vs. southpaws, with his batting average and OPS bumping up to .271 and 1.002, respectively, when facing left-handed pitchers this season.

Like I said, Betts has been a monster when it comes to production. So, that’s why I’m looking at the Over 2.5 for his hits + runs + RBIs prop at a nice +120. It's a number he has eclipsed 10 times in his last 16 overall. 

Mookie Betts prop: Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Sailor take warning

The Seattle Mariners have a strikeout problem. A bad one. Did you know the three hitters with the most strikeouts in the American League this season are all on the Mariners? And four of the Top 5. I wonder if that will come into play when the Mariners dig into the batter’s box against some guy on the Los Angeles Angels named Shohei Ohtani?

The Angels' two-way star is arguably having his best season as a starting pitcher. Ohtani is pitching to a 3.12 xERA while limiting opponents to a ridiculously low .185 xBA. And of course, he has been a strikeout machine.

We’ve always known Ohtani had an impressive arsenal of pitches, including an electric fastball that averages over 97 miles per hour. But now his sweeper has become one of baseball’s most unhittable pitches, and that combination is letting him punch out batters at a crazy rate. 

Ohtani is striking out 33.8% of the batters he faces,which is in the Top 7% of the MLB. His 96 strikeouts and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings both rank second in the American League. And he’s going to improve on those numbers tonight.

The Mariners appear to have a team-wide hole in their swing. It’s been so bad lately they now have the second-highest K-rate vs. right-handers in baseball. With the Mariners also ranking 26th in batting average and 24th in OPS vs. righties, Ohtani could be working for a while in this matchup, giving up plenty of opportunities to rack up the punchouts. 

Ohtani’s strikeout total is sitting at 7.5. He’s gone Over that number in five of his last eight starts, and in five of his last six starts vs. the Mariners dating back to 2021.

Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (-130)