When it comes to Luis Arraez, there's at least one thing we know for certain: he's the best contact hitter in baseball.
As the MLB schedule rolls into June, Arraez is still flirting with that magic number that is a .400 batting average and he’s been near impossible to get out over the last week.
So, you’d think the value in a bunch of MLB prop odds would be dried up right? Wrong, and Arraez will keep racking up the knocks vs. the Royals on Monday night.
Then, I look at a pair of struggling big-name pitchers with tough matchups. Let’s get into my favorite MLB player props for Monday, June 5.
MLB props for June 5
- Arraez Over 1.5 hits
- Wainwright Under 17.5 outs
- Snell Under 6.5 strikeouts
Picks made on 6/5/2023 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Can't stop Luis
The hitting machine that is Luis Arraez has been programmed to overdrive once again. It’s nearly impossible to get the Miami Marlins second baseman out at the moment and the Kansas City Royals could have a tough time changing that tonight.
Arraez is on another one of his patented hot streaks. The 26-year-old is hitting .392 for the season and is especially locked in right now, hitting a ridiculous .539 with a 1.221 OPS over his last seven games. That includes five multi-hit games and his first career five-hit game on Saturday vs. the A’s.
Simply put, he’s the best contact hitter in baseball at the moment and I’m betting he continues this hot streak in this matchup.
The Royals are a familiar foe for Arraez thanks to his time in the AL Central with the Twins. Kansas City is using a bullpen day in the opener of this series and that’s not a good thing for the Royals. Carlos Hernandez will be used as an opener in this matchup with Mike Mayers coming in as the bulk guy.
Hernandez has good strikeout numbers but is coming off a rough outing in his last game, and Arraez rarely strikes out. On top of that, Arraez is 2-for-4 with a double in his career vs. Hernandez. Mayers has been solid in limited long-relief appearances this season but his expected ERA is nearly two runs higher than his current 1.35 ERA, so he could be due for some regression.
Want one more fun Arraez stat? He has at least one hit against everyone in the Kansas City bullpen. And the Royals top three relievers (Scott Barlow, Aroldis Chapman, and Taylor Clarke) all pitched yesterday.
I’m backing the best contact bat in the game to tally another two or more knocks tonight. The plus money is the cherry on top.
Luis Arraez prop: Over 1.5 hits (+170)
Prop bet #2: Wain-wrong
There must be at least a little part of Adam Wainwright that wished he had retired. The St. Louis Cardinals veteran has had a rough go of things so far this season, and things won’t get any easier on Monday when he goes against one of the toughest lineups in baseball in the Texas Rangers.
Every pitcher only has a certain number of pitches in their arms and it looks like Wainwright has exceeded that limit. The Cardinals’ veteran right-hander is basically having the worst season of his career across the board.
Wainwright is pitching to a 6.46 expected ERA and is allowing opponents to hit for a .325 expected batting average and a .535 expected slugging percentage. He's also striking out just 12.9% of the batters he faces. All of those marks rank in the Bottom 5% of MLB or worse.
This basically means the Rangers should be licking their chops for this matchup. Texas has been one of the bigger surprises in baseball and sits atop the AL West with a 38-20 record. No one in baseball has scored more than the 376 runs they've plated this season.
They lead MLB in batting average and are second in OPS and wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season. To me, this all adds up to a shorter outing for Wainwright. Well, at least shorter than the 17.5 outs his outs recorded prop is set at.
Wainwright has been consistent in one sense: he's pitched between 5 and 5 2/3 innings over his five starts this season. I don’t expect him to get over that hump on the road in arguably his toughest matchup of the season.
Adam Wainwright prop: Under 17.5 outs (-115)
Prop bet #3: Chicago gives Snell fits
You may hear that San Diego Padres starter Blake Snell has turned a corner on his season. Let me stop you right there.
Yes, Snell has allowed just one run on seven hits while striking out 13 over his last two starts. However, those starts have come against the Marlins and Nationals. And despite those good numbers, his control issues remained, walking seven batters in those starts.
The advanced numbers don’t see much improvement in Snell, either. He's pitching to a 5.54 expected ERA and surrendering a .468 expected slugging percentage to opponents, which ranks in the 18th percentile in MLB. His 13.7% walk rate is also the highest mark of his career.
And tonight, he gets a tough matchup against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubbies love feasting on southpaws, ranking seventh in batting average and fourth in OPS and wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season. And while the Cubs strike out a fair amount vs. lefties, they also rank seventh in walk rate.
This is a recipe to build up Snell’s pitch count quickly and I’m betting on a shorter outing for him. This means there's an opportunity to attack the Under on his strikeouts at a decent plus-money price. His strikeout total is set at 6.5 and he’s gone Over that number just twice in his last eight starts.
Blake Snell prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120)
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