Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Bellinger Rings Wainwright Up

Big game James

Red Sox starter James Paxton has been dealing this season, pitching to a 3.46 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and an OBA of .198 through 12 starts.

It's been a comeback season for "The Big Maple" who missed almost the entire 2021 and 2022 seasons following Tommy John surgery but he now looks as sharp as he ever did. The left-hander has an expected ERA of 3.17 and an expected batting average of .212, which both rank in the Top 15th percentile of the majors. 

Today, the BoSox face off against a Giants lineup with an OPS of just .672 against southpaws like Paxton. San Fran has been especially brutal at the plate lately, slashing just .203/.281/.341 during the month of July. With the Over/Under on Paxton's hits allowed set at 4.5, a number he has gone below in eight of his last 10 starts, bet the Under.

James Paxton prop: Under 4.5 hits (-110)

For Whom the Bell Tolls

Don't look now, but Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger seems to have rediscovered the form he had when he was named NL MVP back in 2019.

Bellinger is batting .319 with a .546 slugging percentage this season, easily his best numbers since that 2019 campaign. Bellinger has been on fire this month, slashing .427/.455/.742 with eight dingers and four doubles in 23 games. 

Today, Bellinger and the Cubs take on the St. Louis Cardinals and 41-year-old starter Adam Wainwright. The former All-Star is well past his best-before date and has a woeful 7.31 ERA with a 1.92 WHIP in 12 starts this season.

Wainwright has the third-worst expected slugging percentage (.576) among all qualifying pitchers and he's been especially bad against lefties. With the left-handed Bellinger boasting the platoon advantage in this matchup take the Over 1.5 total bases.

Cody Bellinger prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

Seeing Red

The final game on the schedule tonight is a clash between the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers. The total is sitting at a massive 10.5 due to both sides sending struggling starters to the mound.

The Reds are giving the pill to veteran Luke Weaver, who has a 7.20 ERA with a 1.68 WHIP in 17 starts this year. The veteran has looked like the worst pitcher in the majors over the last couple of months, pitching to a 9.41 ERA and allowing opposing batters to slug .626 in nine starts since the beginning of June.

The analytics aren't kind to Weaver either, with his expected ERA (6.01), barrel rate (11.2%), and expected slugging percentage (.519) all sitting in the bottom 10th percentile. 

That's music to the ears of Dodgers designated hitter J.D. Martinez who ranks in the top fifth percentile in barrel rate (17.5%), hard-hit rate (55.6%), and xSLG (.566). Martinez is 22nd in the majors with 186 total bases and has been red-hot lately, slashing .347/.421/.694 over his last 12 games.

Martinez has faced Weaver just three times in his career but went 2-3 with a pair of home runs. Expect him to do damage against Weaver once again and bet the Over 1.5 total bases for the L.A. slugger. 

J.D. Martinez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)