The ALDS continues with two games on today's slate. I've compiled my three favorite home run props, and I'm starting with Yankees superstar Aaron Judge.
Get more info on my MLB player props below.
Best MLB home run props today
Aaron Judge
Kerry CarpenterMake your HR plays at DraftKings
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HR Prop #1: Aaron Judge
The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS to kick off Sunday’s MLB slate. Toronto hands the ball to right-handed rookie Trey Yesavage, who could be a good fade candidate in this market.
Despite looking solid as Toronto's top prospect, Yesavage has struggled with allowing hard contact. If he officially qualified, the former first-round draft pick would rank toward the bottom of the league in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Allowing hard contact is concerning against someone like Aaron Judge, who hits the ball harder than nearly anyone else in the league. This season, Judge finished in the 99th percentile or higher in expected slugging percentage (xSLG), average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
HR Prop #2: Kerry Carpenter
Later in the evening, the Detroit Tigers look to extend their series lead to two games in Sunday’s nightcap against the Seattle Mariners. Another player who has hit the ball hard this year is Detroit’s Kerry Carpenter.
This season, Carpenter finished in the 89th percentile in xSLG, 82nd percentile in average exit velocity, 78th percentile in barrel rate, and 71st percentile in hard-hit rate. Carpenter utilized this hard contact to homer in Game 1, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he continued that success in Game 2 against right-hander Luis Castillo.
Through five plate appearances against Castillo, Carpenter boasts an .800 slugging percentage (SLG), .883 expected slugging (xSLG), and one home run.
HR Prop #3: Riley Greene
Castillo has struggled with the long ball, surrendering 11 home runs over his final 10 regular-season starts. His underlying metrics suggest these struggles are likely to continue in the postseason.
Entering this matchup, Castillo ranks in the bottom half of the league in both expected ERA (xERA) and expected batting average (xBA). Furthermore, the right-hander ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
That brings us to Riley Greene, who should serve as another strong candidate to back for the Tigers. Through eight plate appearances against Castillo, Greene has posted a .875 SLG.
Today’s HR parlay
Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run
Riley Greene to hit a home run
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Aaron Judge, Yankees
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners
- Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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