Projecting Domingo German's Next Start Following His Perfect Game Performance

How do you follow up perfection? It's a question New York Yankees hurler Domingo German has likely been contemplating since Wednesday when he threw the 24th perfect game in MLB history against the Oakland Athletics. It was anything but business as usual for the 30-year-old starter, as he dispatched all 27 batters with just 99 pitches to become the first pitcher since 2012 to throw a perfecto.

Germán. HISTORY! pic.twitter.com/ktEZbxZNIo

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 29, 2023

Next up for German is a Tuesday afternoon matinee at home against the Baltimore Orioles. So, what should bettors expect when he takes the mound against the O's? Let's break down his metrics this season and examine how other pitchers have fared historically in their first outing after throwing a perfect game.

Pitchers' performances drop off after perfect games

Looking back at the last 12 pitchers who have gone 27 up and 27 down, there hasn’t been a big drop off in pitch count in the start after their perfect game, but the performance is unsurprisingly worse. Comparing those outings to the pitchers’ averages for the season, the performances are still below average.

This is the average stat line for German this season through 15 starts:

Dating back to 1988, there have been 12 perfect games. Mike Whitt’s perfect game in 1984 was on his last start of the season and Len Barker had one in 1981, but then the next recent game dates back to 1969, so our data collection will begin in 1988.

This is the average stat line for the 12 most recent pitchers in the start proceeding their perfect game:

Now, let's make it clear, a data set of 12 is a very small sample size. The game of baseball has also changed significantly over the last three-plus decades, especially with pitchers. So instead of taking the average of all the games following a perfect outing, let’s look at how those outings compared to the pitcher’s averages on the season.

When I take the stats from the game proceeding the perfect game and see the difference against the pitchers’ average numbers for that season, I find some very obvious numbers that show a drop in innings pitched, and strikeouts, with an increase in hits, earned runs, and walks. The total pitch count didn’t have much change, which was a little surprising.

These are the average differences in the start following their perfect game vs. the averages per start for that season of the last 12 perfect pitchers:

It’s a pretty consistent and logical outcome as there are many factors that can affect that next start. Subjectively, the most important day for a pitcher is the day after a start which is focused on recovery. A lot of that recovery comes from rest, and I’d expect a deviation from his sleep routine following that win. German’s routine likely got thrown in a blender this week and for pitchers who are so schedule-obsessed, it could certainly be detrimental to his recovery.

That's something that Michael Fisher, the founder of Codify Baseball, works on closely with his clients. He's worked with Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Carlos Rodon, Logan Webb, Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman, among others, and knows that hurlers are creatures of habit.

"It typically isn't hard to stick to the physical parts on the between-starts routine, but when a pitcher has something like this happen it can be really distracting, at the very least," he says. "And of course some are uncomfortable in general talking to the media. With most guys we work with, we try to stay focused on the next outing and worry about adding everything up when the season is over."

German could have a subpar outing against the Orioles

German will likely pitch on five days of rest (as he has of late), so he has some extra time to prepare for the Orioles, but I would expect an outing that is below his average stat line on Tuesday. This was also a pitcher who entered Wednesday’s game having allowed 15 earned runs over his previous two starts.

Even the median numbers from those 12 pitchers show very similar results with the one big difference being a slight +0.03 increase in strikeouts vs. their season averages.

I would like to believe that German’s next performance will mirror those of the past and the right-hander will see a dip in performance compared to his average numbers.

In his perfect start vs. a weak Oakland offense, his closing pitcher prop totals looked like this:

Those numbers are very reflective of the Oakland A’s and their Quad-A offense, but I’m projecting bettors could see an out total at 16.5 which would be an easy Under for me. I’m also hoping to get an Under 5.5 strikeout total but would also hit the Under at 4.5 for even money or better assuming neutral weather conditions.

I’ll be looking to get on these Unders early, meaning I might be setting the alarm Tuesday morning for 4:00 a.m. ET to get the best numbers, as by 7:00 a.m. ET, some of that value will be gone.

It’s been a hell of a week for German, and to even expect an average outing is wishful thinking when you consider how his recovery and routine have been affected, and then add in a road trip from Oakland to St. Louis and back to New York before his next start.

Projecting German's next start

These are my projections assuming neutral weather conditions and the current Baltimore lineup vs. right-handed pitching:

Set those alarms.

More post-perfect game stats to consider

Here are some other points regarding the last 12 starts following a perfect game:

• Four of the starters who threw perfect games threw more pitches in the outing following their perfecto than their 27-out performances.
• Nine of the 12 pitchers failed to reach their season average for innings/start in the game following their perfect game.
• Poor Philip Humber ended the season in the bullpen for the White Sox in 2012.
• Roy Halladay averaged 7.6 innings pitched per start in 2010, the year he threw his perfect game, and averaged less than a walk per start.
• Matt Cain needed the most pitches (125) while David Cone needed the least pitches (88) for their perfect games.
• Only five of the 12 pitchers threw fewer pitches in the start after their perfect game vs. their season average.
• Seven of the 12 pitchers allowed more earned runs and walks vs. their season average in the game proceeding their perfect game.

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