MLB Power Rankings: deGrom Gives Mets a Shot in the Arm

The New York Mets are among the biggest risers in this week's MLB Power Rankings, and with good reason. Jacob deGrom is back for the Mets, and he sure looks like vintage deGrom — bad news for the rest of MLB.

Last Updated: Aug 9, 2022 7:30 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jacob deGrom New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the newest edition of the MLB Power Rankings. 

We started to feel the impact of some trade deadline moves this week. For instance, the Orioles dived, even though they've won seven of their last ten, because they lost starting closer Jorge Lopez, as well as Trey Mancini. Still, they are just one game out and I'll continue to beat the drum on them having value to make the playoffs. 

Speaking of playoffs, last week I wrote about the Cardinals to win the NL Central as one of the best future bets in all of baseball and since then, they swept the Yankees and grabbed a two-game lead in the division. 

Now, let's get to work and go through this week's movement in the MLB Power Rankings below.

MLB Power Rankings: Week of August 9

Rank Team (Radius) Last Week's Rank Record World Series odds
1 Los Angeles Dodgers (.702) 1 75-33 +360
2 New York Yankees (.675) 2 71-39 +425
3 Houston Astros (.643) 3 70-40 +450
4 New York Mets (.630) 4 71-39 +500
5 Atlanta Braves (.600) 5 64-46 +1,200
6 Philadelphia Phillies (.582)  8 60-48 +3,500
7 Toronto Blue Jays (.564) 6 60-49 +1,300
8 St. Louis Cardinals (.559) 10 60-48 +3,500
9 Minnesota Twins (.544)  9 57-51 +6,500
10 San Diego Padres (.542) 7 61-51 +1,400
11 Milwaukee Brewers (.540) 12 58-50 +3,000
12 Seattle Mariners (.538) 11 59-52 +4,000
13 Tampa Bay Rays (.529) 13 58-50 +4,500
14 San Francisco Giants (.520)  15 54-55 +20,000
15 Baltimore Orioles (.510) 14 57-52 +25,000
16 Chicago White Sox (.510) 17 55-54 +4,000
17 Cleveland Guardians (.509) 18 56-52 +9,000
18 Boston Red Sox (.500) 16 54-56 +16,000
19 Texas Rangers (.488) 19 48-60 +200,000
20 Miami Marlins (.476) 20 49-59 +200,000
21 Los Angeles Angels (.470) 21 47-63 +200,000
22 Arizona Diamondbacks (.466) 22 49-59 +200,000
23 Chicago Cubs (.438) 23 44-64 +200,000
24 Colorado Rockies (.435) 24 48-63 +200,000
25 Cincinnati Reds (.428) 25 44-64 +200,000
26 Kansas City Royals (.416) 26 45-65 +200,000
27 Detroit Tigers (.392) 27 43-67 +200,000
28 Pittsburgh Pirates (.382)  29 44-65 +200,000
29 Oakland A's (.376) 28 41-69 +200,000
30 Washington Nationals (.362) 30 36-75 +200,000

World Series odds via DraftKings.
Compare updated World Series futures before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Biggest Risers

New York Mets (4)

We didn't see much movement this week, so I want to talk about a team who didn't move their position but saw a massive radius movement. As a result, the Mets have thrust themselves into the category of elite teams in baseball, both in my personal view and in the MLB Power Rankings. 

You'll notice the separation between the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers isn't as prominent now because they've joined that fold. Sure, they caught some good breaks, but they've just taken four of five from the defending World Series champions. 

Jacob deGrom certainly looks healthy and if he's back to being deGrom, expect them to surpass the Astros.

As a collective, I have their pitching staff ranked in the Top 10, which hardly factors him in yet. Imagine the movement they'll make when he is factored in.

St. Louis Cardinals (8)

The Cards, again the biggest riser, are still worth talking about. 

They jumped two spots in a week, highlighted by their sweep of the New York Yankees. There’s some of that positive regression happening for the Cardinals after being so unlucky to start the season. 

I think they are the class of the division right now, but their pitching is holding them down in our rankings. It's 16th overall in our numbers and has many average peripherals. 

They may have a shot to make some real postseason noise if they can improve on that.

Biggest Fallers

Boston Red Sox (18)

The Red Sox have lost six of their last ten and are on a collision course with last place in the AL East — and just lost Chris Sale for the season to a freak injury. 

Their betting value looks like a heavy Over team down the stretch. For instance, I have them rated as the 18th worst pitching staff and baseball with the expectancy to get worse. 

They have the highest differential in baseball of actual batting average vs. expected batting average against them. They combine that with a pretty potent offense, even with their record. Those two in combination make them a strong Over team to target down the stretch. 

Oakland A's (29)

There are teams that have been playing worse baseball than the Oakland A’s, but none have been more erratic as of late. 

A few weeks ago, they had one of the longest winning streaks in baseball, and now they've lost three straight. It does appear that some of the deadline moves have caught up to them. 

There's not much of a betting angle here, but maybe the A’s are less of a threat to torpedo that parlay than they've been in the past. 

Their offense has steadily fallen over the last month, and I only have them ahead of the Tigers in that category now.

Power Rankings methodology

Chris Hatfield's MLB Power Rankings are based heavily on the Pythagorean Theorem, pioneered by Bill James.

This process estimates the percentage of games a team should win and, therefore, where they fall in line in the MLB hierarchy. After that, he adds some secret sauce to develop a team's "radius," which includes a formula comprised of a team's collective expected ERA, run value, and wOBA, among other items.

This process not only attempts to show you how one formula views the landscape, but also which team has the best value to win the World Series vs. oddsmakers' expectations.

Through various sims, he finds the implied probability of one team achieving postseason success to help readers like yourself cash tickets. Just as importantly, Chris’ MLB Power Rankings are not a subjective list — and do not reflect odds between two teams in a given matchup.

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