Today’s getaway day for a lot of teams across the country, which means an early start to our MLB player props as we target games in the afternoon slate.
Keep reading below to see why I think Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nolan Arenado, and Steven Kwan are our best bets in my free MLB picks for Wednesday, July 23.
Best MLB player props today
Crow Armstrong o1.5 TB (-115)
Arenado o0.5 RBI (+115)
Kwan o1.5 H+R+RBI (-160)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Wednesday, July 23
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (-125 at bet365)
Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to be on an absolute tear, and he has done almost all his damage against right-handed pitching. While he’s only hitting .205 against southpaws, PCA is batting .300 with a .946 OPS against righties with 40 extra-base hits.
In general, Crow-Armstrong has seen his analytics go through the roof in his second full season. His average exit velocity still isn’t off the charts at 87.9 mph, but he’s hitting the ball hard 43% of the time, getting the ball up in the air more, and increasing his pull rate to drive the ball increasingly often.
This afternoon, he'll face Seth Lugo, and while the Kansas City Royals starter has been strong this year, I don’t think he’ll slow down this red-hot bat. Crow-Armstrong has at least two total bases in each of his last four games, and I’m backing him to make it five.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSNKC, Marquee
Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 RBI (+115 at bet365)
We don’t yet have an official probable starter for the Colorado Rockies at the time of this writing, but Kyle Freeland appears to be the most likely to take the mound. Whether it’s Freeland or someone else, I don’t think the St. Louis Cardinals will have much trouble getting to the Rockies pitching in Colorado.
The Cardinals have been more than solid on offense, averaging 4.52 runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies haven’t shut anyone down, allowing a dreadful 6.12 runs per game, and that number rises to 7.12 runs at home.
Freeland hasn’t helped much, though his 5.19 ERA is the best on the starting staff – meaning there aren’t exactly better options out there for the Rockies to turn to. No matter who gets the start, it’s open season at Coors Field.
Nolan Arenado will be right in the middle of the St. Louis attack, and if Freeland – a lefty – is the starter, all the better, as Arenado has a .742 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. I’m expecting plenty of runs from the Cardinals, and with Arenado likely to come up with runners on base, I like him to pick up at least one RBI.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSNMW, COLR
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-141 at Caesars)
It’s never a horrible idea to bet on Steven Kwan to pick up a hit or two, as the Cleveland Guardians outfielder has become one of the most consistent contact bats in the majors.
But Kwan is especially dangerous against right-handed pitching, and has platoon improvements in all aspects of his game. Not only is he hitting .301 against righties this season, but his on-base percentage goes up 61 points against them, while his slugging increases by a massive .132. All of his homers and 24 of his 32 RBI have come when he faces righties.
That’s all to say that Kwan is more than just a target to pick up a base hit when he has a good platoon matchup. That’s the case this evening, when he faces Zach Eflin. The Baltimore Orioles righty has a horrendous 5.95 ERA this season, isn’t striking anyone out, and has given up 16 homers in just 62 innings of work.
That’s not to say Kwan will homer, but he’s likely to tee off against a pitcher who doesn’t have much to challenge him. More than that, the Guardians will have chances to hit against Eflin up and down the lineup. That means Kwan could bat with runners on from the bottom of the order. I’m taking Kwan to hit the Over on his total of 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI to round out my MLB picks.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN2, CLEG
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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