Thursday has arrived! It's a super small slate tonight, but there are still a ton of guys in great spots to boom.
Join me as I break down why I expect a big day at the dish from Wilyer Abreu against an old-timer and Kyle Schwarber in my three favorite MLB player props for Aug. 13.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Wilyer Abreu |
Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI | -114 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI | -118 |
 Teoscar Hernandez |
To record 1+ hit | -150 |
Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-114)
I am finding it very hard to pass up backing a guy who is not only slugging .824, but also owns a .500 ISO while generating a 64.5% hard-hit rate and 19.4% barrel rate over his last 10 games. That guy is Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu, who enters with the fifth-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box and covers more than 80% of Toronto Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer’s pitch mix.
In Abreu’s last 30 at-bats vs. right-handed pitchers, he's batting .476 with a 1.238 SLG and 1.805 OPS while producing a 66.7% hard-hit rate and 23.8% barrel rate. He is so hot that the -114 price tag has me completely blind to the falling knife that is him eventually cooling off.
However, Scherzer has struggled against left-handed hitters this season, allowing them to own a .309 BA, .574 SLG, and .412 wOBA. On top of that, those left-handed hitters have generated a 32% hard-hit rate and 70.4% elevation rate. The last 30 he's faced have posted a .394 xBA, .673 xSLG, and .332 xwOBA.
This is a fantastic price for an elite-rated hitter to go over his HRR prop. I would take this down to -120 at the most, or pivot to his bases at around +120.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-118)
The guy we have all been waiting on to get back to destroying baseballs is Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, and he has started heating back up. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .500 SLG and .235 ISO while generating a 47.6% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate.
On top of that, Schwarber owns the No. 1 matchup rating on Batters-Box tonight while covering more than 90% of Minnesota Twins right-hander Taj Bradley’s entire pitch mix. Over the last three seasons, the big fella has recorded at least a hit 61.13% of the time, hit a home run 26.5% of the time, and gone over this prop 52.3% in a sample size of 283 elite-rated games.
Bradley has done a great job reviving his career in Minnesota, but he has struggled against left-handed hitters. Overall, he has allowed a 45.2% hard-hit rate, 13.7% barrel rate, and 33% ground-ball rate.
This is a great spot for the slugger to show off at the "Field of Dreams" game. Take this prop down to -120, but if you can find his hit prop better than -150, take that instead.
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Netflix
Teoscar Hernadez to record 1+ hits (-150)
Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez has an elite rating on Batters-Box and a great opportunity to do the bare minimum for us this evening. The veteran slugger draws Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Shane Drohan, against whom Hernandez covers nearly 75% of his pitch mix.
Over the last 60 right-handed hitters faced, Drohan owns a 7.43 ERA while allowing a 12.5% barrel rate and a 70% elevation rate. On the other side, Hernandez is batting .310 with a .552 SLG and .242 ISO over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws.
In 115 elite-rated games over the last three seasons, Hernandez has recorded at least a hit nearly 67% of the time. At -150, this is a price worth paying the juice. If you are not in the juice-paying business, take his hits, runs, and RBI prop at +119.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, BREW
- Prop picks: 392-760, -14.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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