Will the trends be our friend yet again? We have a ton of value to attack this evening, so here are my favorite MLB player props for June 25, led by Yordan Alvarez and Riley Greene.
Best MLB props today
| Player/Team | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 total bases | -123 |
 Riley Greene |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -118 |
 Cardinals |
First five team total o2.5 | -115 |
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-123)
Elite rated, with nearly 94.5% arsenal coverage, Yordan Alvarez is batting .381 with a .667 SLG, while generating a 56% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. How am I supposed to pass up backing Alvarez today?
Especially with Detroit Tigers right-hander Troy Melton on the mound. Melton has allowed left-handed hitters to produce a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 54.5% fly-ball rate at home this season. Over the last 60 lefties he's faced, he's surrendered a 63.6% elevation rate, along with a .421 xSLG and .457 wOBA.
With the way Alvarez has been seeing the baseball lately and the quality of contact he has been producing, I love this spot for him. For a little extra value, I sprinkled his home run and double props as well.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DSN, SCHN
Riley Greene Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-118)
Detroit Tigers young slugger Riley Greene enters today in a very intriguing matchup against Houston Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai, who has had his fair share of struggles against left-handed hitters.
Greene enters with an elite rating and nearly 90% arsenal coverage against Imai's pitch mix on Batters-Box. In 32 elite-rated home matchups, Greene has recorded a hit 68.75% of the time, 2+ hits 43.75% of the time, homered in 25% of those games, and cleared this prop nearly 60% of the time. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns an .847 OPS, .480 SLG, and a 16.7% barrel rate.
Imai has allowed left-handed hitters to do just about whatever they want this season. On the road, lefties are hitting .281 with a .500 SLG and .415 wOBA against him. Among the last 90 left-handed batters he's faced, opponents have generated a 50% hard-hit rate, 10.3% barrel rate, and 63.8% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .357 xBA, .578 xSLG, and .379 xwOBA.
I struggle to get on the right side of Greene sometimes, but getting him at -118 to clear his hits + runs + RBI prop as an elite-rated hitter is a great bet in my book. Looking for plus money? Take the total bases prop instead.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DSN, SCHN
Cardinals first five team total Over 2.5 (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen enters today with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season ratings. The veteran brings poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate to the table.
To make matters worse, he draws seven elite-rated Cardinals hitters from an offense that is already averaging more than 2.5 runs per game in the first five innings at home this season.
Over their last 12 games, the Cardinals have been squaring baseballs up all over the yard, posting a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, .345 wOBA, and .151 ISO. Away from home this season, Gallen owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while allowing 48% hard contact and an 11.5% barrel rate.
There are simply too many Cardinals bats in great spots this evening. This is the easiest way for me to back all seven at once. I would not play this any higher than -125.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, ARID
- Prop picks: 239-440, -6.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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