Freddie Freeman is one of the best hitters in the world and he enters tonight's matchup against the A's on a tear.
The Dodgers' superstar headlines my favorite MLB player props today and I'm also backing a pair of AL starters in favorable matchups.
Here are my best free MLB picks for Thursday, May 15.
Best MLB player props today
Paddack 5+ strikeouts (+155)
Brown Under 1.5 earned runs (+115)
Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
MLB props for May 15
Chris Paddack 5+ strikeouts (+155 at bet365)
The strikeouts O/U for Minnesota Twins starter Chris Paddack today is set at just 3.5 with the Over juiced to -145. That seems too low given his recent form and his favorable matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, which is why I'm betting the 5+ strikeouts milestone at +155.
Paddack had a horrible season debut but has been solid since, pitching to a 2.51 ERA with an OBA of .191 in his last six starts. He's now three years removed from Tommy John surgery, which means he should be closer to the version he was from 2019 to 2021 when he averaged 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
Paddack faces an underachieving Orioles lineup that is 28th in the majors in strikeout rate (24.1%). With Paddack fanning 5+ batters in four of his last six starts, back him to hit that mark this afternoon.
Hunter Brown Under 1.5 earned runs (+115 at bet365)
Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is coming off a gem against the Reds where he struck out nine and allowed just two hits in 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball.
Brown put together a strong sophomore season in 2024 and has been even better this year, pitching to a 1.48 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP through eight starts. The 26-year-old has an expected ERA of 2.85 and sits in the Top 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate.
Today, Brown faces the Texas Rangers, who are 24th in the majors in OPS (.669) and 26th in runs per game (3.50). Texas is also missing its top hitter, Corey Seager, who is sidelined with a strained hamstring.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at BetMGM)
Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman leads the NL in batting average (.362) and slugging percentage (.698). The eight-time All-Star has been on fire, slashing .441/.500/.779 over his last 18 games.
He has also slugs .736 with the platoon advantage, which he'll have tonight against Athletics righty Osvaldo Bido, who has a 4.75 ERA with an OBA of .288 through eight starts. The A's also have a terrible bullpen that ranks 28th in the majors in ERA (5.24) and WHIP (1.56).
Bido is in the Bottom 20th percentile in barrel rate and the Bottom 10th in ground ball rate, which will result in deep fly balls. That will be especially beneficial for the left-handed Freeman today with a 10 mph breeze blowing towards the right field fence.
Not intended for use in MA.
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