We have a loaded 15-game slate on the MLB schedule today with no shortage of betting value across the big leagues. I’ve found my top MLB player props, including a pair of pitching props fading veterans Zack Wheeler and Clayton Kershaw.
I’m also tabbing Manny Machado to jump the yard at a square price on Friday, August 15.
Best MLB player props today
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Wheeler o1.5 ER (-130) -
Kershaw o2.5 ER (-105) -
Machado 1+ HR (+350)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Friday, August 15
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 earned runs (-130 at BET99)
Zack Wheeler is having another dominant campaign for the Philadelphia Phillies, serving as one of their best arms. The right-hander has a 10-5 record and 2.68 ERA in 23 starts, with opponents hitting just .197. However, his total in earned runs is a little too low tonight for my liking.
The veteran has allowed Over 2.5 earned runs in five consecutive outings and has a 4.09 ERA so far in August. Not terrible numbers, but also not up to the standard we’re used to seeing from Wheeler.
While he is facing the lowly Washington Nationals tonight, Wheeler did surrender two earned to them back in June.
I still expect him to have a good start here, but the Nats will score a couple of runs, at the very least. His ERA also sits at 3.24 on the road compared to 2.19 at home.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, NBCSP
Clayton Kershaw Over 2.5 earned runs (-105 at BET99)
We’re hammering the Over again for another starting pitcher here as Clayton Kershaw takes the hill in a huge game against the rival San Diego Padres.
Kershaw has pitched relatively well this year since making his season debut, compiling a 6-2 record and 3.14 ERA. However, the Padres have hit him around in the past.
San Diego’s lineup has a .277 average versus the lefty across 148 at-bats. He hasn’t faced them yet this season, but in 2024, Kershaw gave up seven runs (three earned) in only 3 2/3 innings. As for 2023, Kershaw was tagged for four earned runs across 4 2/3 innings of work.
He hasn’t found much success vs. San Diego in recent memory. Although Kershaw has only allowed Over 2.5 earned runs once in his last four appearances, everything is pointing towards him having trouble this evening against L.A.’s NL West foes.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Padres Television Network
Manny Machado anytime home run (+350 at bet365)
Maybe there’s some risk here, but why not feed off the Kershaw pick?
Among the Padres hitters who have raked against Kershaw is Manny Machado. He’s 13-for-42 lifetime with four home runs. The slugger has 20 bombs on the year, and Kershaw has allowed five of his six long balls to right-handed hitters.
Machado hasn’t gone deep yet this month but has a hit in four consecutive games, and he’s smacked 10 round-trippers on the road. Playing against the Dodgers always bring a different level of motivation for Machado, who had a short stint with L.A. before signing with San Diego many years ago.
He’s batting .276 against the Dodgers this season and has already went yard once against them. If there’s one hitter in the San Diego lineup who will be feeling uber-confident with Kershaw on the bump, it’s Machado. That may just result in home run No. 21.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Padres Television Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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