Happy Friday, everyone! It is time to kick off the weekend on a high note by taking a few player props with a ton of upside.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB player props for Aug. 14, including why I expect another big day at the dish from Griffin Conine.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Griffin Conine |
To record 1+ Hit | -131 |
 Grayson Rodriguez |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | -106 |
 Baltimore Orioles |
First Five Team Total Over 1.5 | -115 |
Griffin Conine to record 1+ hit (-131)
Cincinnati Reds right-hander Chase Burns has been fantastic this season, owning a 2.58 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the year. However, has he been that good to where a red-hot hitter like Miami Marlins outfielder Griffin Conine should be -131 to record a hit? Likely not.
Conine is tied for the fifth-highest barrel rate among players over their last 10 games at 25%. During that stretch, he also has a .594 SLG, .313 ISO and 20% ground-ball rate.
At home this season, Burns is allowing left-handed hitters to elevate the baseball nearly 70% of the time, while they are producing a 33% hard-hit rate.
For a guy to do the bare minimum at -131, this is a great price. If you are not in the juice-paying business, take his Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI prop.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, MIAM
Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 earned runs (-106)
The worst-rated pitcher on the day takes on the highest-rated offense. Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box, and he draws a fully elite Kansas City Royals lineup featuring five elite-rated bats.
Rodriguez has struggled all season long, owning a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP while allowing a 45.66% hard-hit rate and 10.4% barrel rate to opposing hitters. The Royals are peppered with left-handed hitters, and Rodriguez owns a 6.35 xERA against lefties this season.
Despite the disappointing season from the Royals, they should be able to keep this one fun and exciting with everyone in that lineup in a great spot this evening. This is playable down to -110, or find their first five team total over 2.5 at plus money.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, ROYL
Orioles first five team total Over 1.5 (-115)
With the Tampa Bay Rays likely going with Steven Matz as the opener and Jesse Scholtens to follow, the Baltimore Orioles offense needs to be backed this evening.
Despite the underwhelming season for the Orioles, they still rank 17th in first-five scoring, putting up around 2.44 runs. Over the team's last six games, the offense owns a 123 wRC+, along with a .349 wOBA, .795 OPS and .209 ISO. During that stretch, they are producing a 47.7% hard-hit rate and 10.5% barrel rate.
The Bird offense is humming at the moment.
Scholtens owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box's default ratings, with a poorly rated matchup ISO, hard contact and ground-ball rate. Matz, meanwhile, has struggled at home this season, posting a 6.75 ERA across 11 games and allowing 21 runs over 28 innings.
We just need two runs!
This is a complete misprice. Take this down to -135.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, MASN
- Prop picks: 396-765, -12.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
