The Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers conclude a three-game series this afternoon at Dodger Stadium.
Pittsburgh won Game 1 behind a strong Paul Skenes start, but L.A.’s bats answered back with an 8-4 victory in Game 2.
I’m betting the bats stay hot while targeting Freddie Freeman’s total bases prop with my Pirates vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, April 27.
Pirates vs Dodgers prediction
My Pirates vs Dodgers best bet: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+116 at Caesars)
Lefty Bailey Falter gets the call for the Pittsburgh Pirates during Sunday’s matinee.
The 6-foot-4 hurler has severe reverse splits, allowing left-handed hitters to hit .319 since the start of 2023. This season alone, lefties are 9-for-26 (.409) with two home runs and a .682 SLG.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been good but unspectacular against left-handed pitching with a 107 wRC+ and .325 wOBA. Falter’s reverse splits muddy the waters a bit, and that could end up helping out L.A.’s offensive outlook.
One lefty who has hit Falter well in the past is Freddie Freeman. The veteran first baseman is 2-for-5 with a home run, three RBI, and a walk against Falter in his career.
Caesars Sportsbook is offering plus money (+116) on Freeman to record 2+ total bases, an opportunity I’m biting at.
Falter is underwhelming in general. He’s a soft tosser who doesn’t make batters miss (12th percentile chase rate) and allows hard contact (20th percentile average exit velocity, eighth percentile hard-hit rate).
The 28-year-old ranks 100th in Stuff+ (93) out of 135 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings.
Freeman has been crushing the ball, ranking in the 97th percentile or above in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. The 35-year-old has also been raking at home (207 wRC+ and .471 wOBA) and should benefit from the friendly hitting environment.
The weather forecast calls for winds of 11 mph blowing straight out to center field. This is similar to yesterday’s forecast when L.A. plated eight runs and bopped eight extra-base hits.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Pirates vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 runs
Tyler Glasnow had a shortened start last time out, getting lifted after four scoreless innings due to a lower leg injury. He’s reportedly full-go for this start and should be well rested after six days of rest, throwing just 52 pitches in his last start.
Glasnow sports a 31.9% K-rate and has been above 30% every season since 2019. Pittsburgh has a lowly 83 wRC+ against RHP, so this is a great opportunity for the towering flamethrower to get back on track.
Shohei Ohtani has scored 10 runs in his last eight games. He should be in his usual spot atop the lineup and stands to benefit against a starting pitcher who had a 4.92 ERA on the road in 2024.
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Pirates vs Dodgers odds
Pirates vs Dodgers live odds
Pirates vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +260 | Los Angeles -320
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (+125) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Pirates vs Dodgers trend
Freddie Freeman has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Pirates vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California |
| Date | Sunday, 4-27-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN W, TWINS.tv |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Bailey Falter (1-2, 5.19 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Tyler Glasnow (1-0, 3.71 ERA) |
Pirates vs Dodgers latest injuries
Pirates vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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