Get set for a National League Central Division showdown when the St. Louis Cardinals welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to Busch Stadium for the opening game of a three-game series.
St. Louis righty Miles Mikolas has had a short leash in 2025, and my Pirates vs. Cardinals predictions expect an early hook tonight for the veteran hurler.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, May 5.
Pirates vs Cardinals prediction
My Pirates vs Cardinals best bet: Miles Mikolas Under 17.5 outs (-109 at Caesars)
St. Louis Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas hasn’t allowed an earned run across his last 11 2/3 frames on the bump.
Despite his recent good fortune, Mikolas has exhibited command issues, and his mediocre heater is serving up a .300 BABIP. He’s only finished the sixth inning once, and his history against this Pittsburgh Pirates lineup isn’t encouraging.
This collection of Pirates is slashing .296/.308/.444 with a .752 OPS in 142 career at-bats against the veteran righty. The punch-outs haven’t been there (24), and Pittsburgh has cracked 16 extra-base hits and 14 RBI.
The Pirates will be coming into town hungry. They’ve dropped four straight behind an offense that has plated only a dozen runs across their last five games.
Mikolas has been red-hot, but his command has been off by his standards. He’s issuing nearly three walks per nine, and his 5.03 xFIP and .300 BABIP suggest the regression monster might bite Mikolas.
And even when he more or less handled the Reds in his last outing — no runs on three hits and zero walks — he was pulled after 5 1/3 innings on just 77 pitches. So even if he's more like vintage pinpoint Mikolas, he's simply not being trusted to go through the order a third time.
Pittsburgh has a good history against Mikolas, and the veteran has only gotten 18 outs once in six 2025 starts. I’m betting the Cardinals' righty doesn’t record 18+ outs tonight.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Pirates vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Pirates F5 moneyline
Oneil Cruz 1+ hits
Bryan Reynolds 1+ hits
While I expect Mikolas to exit early today, pitcher outs aren’t included in Caesars' same-game parlay markets, my three-legger still correlates with my best bet.
Oneil Cruz is crushing right-handed pitching. He’s batting .306 with a 1.067 OPS. Cruz also has a pair of extra-base hits against Mikolas.
Bryan Reynolds slashes .359/.372/.513 with an .885 OPS in 39 career at-bats against Mikolas. Reynolds is in a 0-for-9 slump, but his .297 BABIP against righties could mean positive regression tonight.
Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski (1-3, 6.58 ERA) has struggled with command, but he did record his best start against the Cardinals.
He struck out six with only two earned runs across five frames, and his 3.86 xFIP suggests his luck could change for the better tonight against a St. Louis club that might be flat after sweeping Sunday’s doubleheader against the Mets.
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Pirates vs Cardinals odds
Pirates vs Cardinals live odds
Pirates vs Cardinals opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +135 | St. Louis -161
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-154) | St. Louis -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Pirates vs Cardinals trend
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last six away games (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Pirates vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Monday, 5-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, FanDuel Sports Network Midwest |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Carmen Mlodzinski (1-3, 6.58 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Miles Mikolas (1-2, 4.66 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cardinals latest injuries
Pirates vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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