The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies in the series finale Sunday afternoon at PNC Park. The Pirates are once again home underdogs against the best team in baseball.
Philadelphia isn’t quite looking like the best team in baseball out of the break, though. The Phillies blew two 3-run leads on Friday night before mustering just four hits on Saturday.
Can the Pirates sweep the Phils at home? Read our MLB picks and Phillies vs. Pirates predictions below to find out.
Phillies vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-140 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cuz has come out of the All-Star break on fire. He went 3-for-5 on Friday night with two doubles, three RBI, and two runs scored. The youngster followed that up by accounting for three of the Pirates’ four runs on Saturday via a double and home run.
Cruz has always flashed the potential to be a major threat in the middle of the Pirates’ lineup and he’s been showing that lately. He’s 16-for-43 (.372) with three home runs and five doubles since July 3.
The Philadelphia Phillies are starting Tyler Phillips, who will be making his third major league appearance (second start). He allowed four runs on six hits through six innings last weekend against the Athletics. That included two home runs, and he also allowed one round-tripper in his MLB debut. Phillips had a 4.89 ERA in 15 starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley before getting the call.
Cruz’s splits don’t lie: he’s a much better hitter at home and against right-handed pitching. He’s batting .294 with an OPS north of .900 at home but just .217 with a .589 OPS on the road. Those splits are similar to his numbers vs. RHP (.288 avg, .853 OPS) and LHP (.146 avg, .445 OPS).
The shortstop has gone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in four straight games and seven of his last nine contests. He’s now recorded a hit in nine of his last 11 games, as well.
Phillies vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 hits
Tyler Phillips 5+ strikeouts
Pirates moneyline
Phillips has picked up 12 strikeouts through 10 innings thus far, including seven in four innings against the Braves. He has the stuff to get at least five on Sunday afternoon, and it’s a nice contrarian leg for our SGP.
I’m taking the Pirates to complete the sweep to complete our SGP. The Phillies can wake up at any time but they’re a bit off right now with a young pitcher on the mound.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Pirates odds
Phillies vs Pirates live odds
Phillies vs Pirates opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+105) | Pittsburgh -+1.5 (-125)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -150 | Pittsburgh +125
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Phillies vs Pirates spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened around -150 and haven’t moved much as of late Saturday night. Keep an eye out for any lineup changes in the day game after a night game.
- The Pirates are +125 underdogs, a number that could come down closer to first pitch.
- The total is set between a flat 9 and 9.5.
Phillies vs Pirates trend
The Pirates have cashed the moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (+9.70 units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs Pirates.
Phillies vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, SNP |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Tyler Phillips (1-0, 4.50 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Marco Gonzales (1-0, 2.45 ERA) |
Phillies vs Pirates latest injuries
Phillies vs Pirates weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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