Phillies vs Marlins Picks and Predictions: Alcantara, Fish Stick it to Phils

The Marlins can't hit water falling out of a boat but have arguably the best pitcher in the league on the mound tonight. Find out if they can win this war of attrition against the Phillies as we break down our MLB betting picks.

Robert Criscola - Contributor at
Robert Criscola • Publishing Editor
Jul 15, 2022 • 09:40 ET • 4 min read
Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins will look to stay afloat in the NL East race when they begin a three-game series at LoanDepot Park on Friday night.

The Phillies started 2-0 on their current nine-game road trip before dropping four in a row. The Marlins have played .500 ball over their last 10 games, splitting each of their last three series.

Who will kick off this final three-gamer before the All-Star break with a win? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs Marlins on Friday, July 15.

Phillies vs Marlins odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Marlins opened as consensus favorites of -145, but that line is long gone. Now Miami is listed in the -175 range at the majority of sportsbooks. The total has remained at its opening line of 7, though some sites have raised the vig on the Under, setting the stage for some 6.5s to emerge later on.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Phillies vs Marlins predictions

Picks made on 7/15/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Phillies vs Marlins game info

Location: Marlins Park, Miami, FL
Date: Friday, July 15, 2022
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Florida

Phillies vs Marlins betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kyle Gibson (4-3, 4.53 ERA): Gibson’s ERA has jumped from 3.83 to 4.53 since the start of June, as he’s thrown in some clunkers in that span. He allowed 11 earned runs over his last 6 2-3 innings (two starts) prior to blanking the Cardinals over seven frames when last seen on July 9. 

Sandy Alcantara (9-3, 1.73 ERA): Alcantara has enhanced his NL Cy Young credentials by pitching 15 scoreless innings to begin the month of July. He’s struck out 14 while walking only one batter in that span.  


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in the Phillies’ last eight overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Marlins

Phillies vs Marlins picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The stingy Sandy Alcantara should guide the Marlins to a Friday night victory over the Phillies.

Alcantara owns a 1.59 ERA through nine starts at home this year, and he’s averaging an eye-popping 7.56 innings per start. Opponents are batting just .179 against Alcantara at LoanDepot Park this year.

With Bryce Harper out of the lineup, the Phillies’ best power hitters are Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber, but Alcantara does not figure to be intimidated by them. The duo has combined to bat 10-for-41 (.244) against the Dominican native with only one longball between them.

Philadelphia enters this contest cold at the plate, mustering a total of only 11 runs over its last six contests. Not only should bettors expect this club to flail against Alcantara, but against the Miami bullpen as well. The Marlins’ relief corps has produced a 2.72 ERA over the last two weeks, good for seventh in the majors in that span. 

The Phillies counter with Kyle Gibson in this clash, and the inconsistent hurler has a 5.22 ERA as the visitor this year. Miami is a modest 14th in runs per game at home, but they should scratch out an early lead and never look back against a starter with a 1.41 WHIP on the road. 

Prediction: Marlins moneyline (-164 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

The Phillies’ lineup is mired in a cold spell, but the Marlins have been starved for offense for most of this season. The Under feels like a safe play, even against this fairly low line. 

Miami is hitting .214 as a unit in July, with Miguel Rojas and Avisail Garcia tied as the team’s “hottest” hitter (min. 25 at-bats) at .263. Jon Berti leads the majors in stolen bases (28) but has only five in July, as he’s struggled somewhat to get on base with a .326 OBP. Unbelievably, that mark leads the team for the month. 

Neither Rojas (face) nor Berti (groin) may suit up for this game after leaving Thursday’s tilt with the Pirates early. 

Gibson has a pedestrian 32-15 strikeout/walk ratio on the road this year, but the Fish are 25th in walks drawn and 22nd in strikeouts. Once Gibson departs, the Phils’ top-ranked bullpen by ERA over the last two weeks (1.97) will take the reins.

Seranthony Dominguez, Brad Hand, and Corey Knebel have combined for four saves in this stretch. Jose Alvarado has amassed five shutout innings in six appearances. 

Trend bettors should note that the Under is 10-1 in the Phillies’ last 11 games after allowing five or more runs in their previous game, and 4-1-1 in the Marlins’ last six games following a win.

Prediction: Under 7 (-115 at FanDuel

Best bet

Total bettors should be unafraid to play the Under in this tilt — even with the uneven Gibson on the hill, as the incredible Alcantara is his foe. 

Watching Alcantara this season has been a breath of fresh air for baseball traditionalists, as Marlins manager Don Mattingly has been ready, willing, and able to let his rotation ace work deep in practically every outing. 

Assuming Miami has a late lead to protect, Steven Okert (three holds in July) should be available. Tanner Scott (five saves) and Anthony Bass (6 2-3 scoreless innings) have worked consecutive days coming into this contest, but have each already pitched three straight days this month, so they could also be options for Mattingly. 

Pick: Under 7 (-115 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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