A's vs Astros Picks and Predictions: A's Surprise With Irvin on Bump

The A's are very much not good, but they have a stud on the mound tonight, and he's had the Astros' number this season. With Houston's lineup hobbled, find out how we're getting value of out a low-scoring affair with our MLB betting picks.

Tony Sartori - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Jul 15, 2022 • 08:38 ET • 4 min read
Cole Irvin Oakland A's MLB picks
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We have the first matchup of this three-game AL West intradivisional series as the Houston Astros host the Oakland Athletics. This is the seventh meeting between these two clubs this season, and there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in four of the first six matchups.

Will we get yet another low-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the bats awaken this time around? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Athletics vs Astros on Friday, July 15.

A's vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros were unveiled as consensus favorites of -206 on Thursday evening. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 8.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

A's vs Astros predictions

Picks made on 7/14/2022 at 11:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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A's vs Astros game info

Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Date: Friday, July 15, 2022
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports Southern California, AT&T SportsNet Houston

A's vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Cole Irvin (3-7, 3.32 ERA): Irvin is coming off two straight good starts against powerful offenses, including his opponent in tonight’s matchup. In his most recent outing, Irvin allowed just two earned runs on five hits through six innings pitched against the Houston Astros in a game that Oakland’s bullpen let get away from them. Prior to that outing, Irvin allowed just one earned run on four hits through eight innings pitched in Oakland’s 5-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.

Jake Odorizzi (4-2, 3.38 ERA): Like Irvin, Jake Odorizzi enters this contest in good form, as he’s surrendered one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. Also like Irvin, Odorizzi’s last start came against tonight’s opponent. In that outing, Odorizzi shut down Oakland, allowing zero runs on four hits through seven innings pitched as the Astros won 6-1. That game had the same exact pitching matchup as tonight’s contest.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-2 in the six games played between the Athletics and the Astros this season. Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Astros

A's vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Oakland Athletics will look for momentum in any way they can as their season’s woes continue. That being said, I think there is some value in their moneyline as a big underdog due to the fact that left-hander Cole Irvin is slated to take the mound for Oakland.

Through 15 starts this season, Irvin is 3-7 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He’s had Houston’s number this season, dominating in each of his two starts against them. Through those two starts, Irvin has allowed just three earned runs on 11 hits through 11 2-3 innings pitched. Irvin also enters this contest in great form, allowing just three earned runs on nine hits through his last two starts.

This strong stretch could definitely continue against a Houston team that is missing three of their best hitters, as Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Michael Brantley are all expected to miss this game. 

Additionally, the scheduling of this game could favor Oakland. The Athletics had Thursday off while the Astros had a late night in Los Angeles, flew back to Texas (losing two hours due to time change), and have to play again on Friday night.

Prediction: Athletics moneyline (+175 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

As I mentioned above, Houston may struggle to score runs as it’s missing three great hitters and going against Irvin, who enters this matchup in great form and has fared well on the mound against Houston this season.

There have now been eight or fewer total runs scored in six of Irvin’s last seven starts (86%), including his most recent outing against Houston. However, Houston will also be going with a strong pitcher in this outing in right-hander Jake Odorizzi. 

Through nine starts this season, Odorizzi is 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. His most recent start was against the Athletics in a game where he was lights out on the mound, as he allowed zero runs on four hits through seven innings pitched and the Astros won 6-1.

That start capped off a great stretch of pitching for Odorizzi, who has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. Following him is one of the league’s better bullpens.

Since June 1, the Astros’ relief pitching ranks sixth in the league in ERA, third in BA, second in SLG, and third in wOBA. I think we will get a pitcher’s duel in this game, especially with Houston missing those big names from the lineup.

Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at PointsBet)

Best bet

I think the Under is the strongest play to make in this game. If we get a low-scoring affair, it turns the game into more of a coin flip if both starters perform as well as advertised.

With that thinking, I believe Oakland moneyline could be worth a shot at such a large price. However, I am taking what I perceive to be the safer route and going with the Under.

Oakland’s lineup is terrible and I could see Odorizzi shutting them out once again, which is my main concern in taking Oakland’s moneyline. While Houston’s lineup has been good, those three guys being out is a huge loss of run production.

Add to the fact that both starting pitchers are coming into this series in good form, I like the Under. These two clubs have engaged in low-scoring affairs multiple times this season, a trend I expect to continue in this matchup.

Pick: Under 8 (-115 at PointsBet)

MLB parlays

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