Red Sox vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Bronx Bombers Prevail in Offensive Slugfest

The Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees will try to end their respective slides at Yankee Stadium on Friday night. The Red Sox enter this contest losers of four in a row and eight of their last 10, while the Yankees have dropped four of their last five overall.

Which of these two bitter rivals will take the series opener?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs Yankees on Friday, July 15.

Red Sox vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees opened as consensus -168 favorites and have drifted up slightly to -175 at the majority of sportsbooks. The initial total was listed at 8.5, and while that number can still be found, most sites have moved the total down to 8.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Yankees predictions

• Prediction: Yankees ML (-165)
• Prediction: Over 8 (-115)
• Best bet: Over 8 (-115)

Picks made on 7/15/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Red Sox vs Yankees game info

• Location: Yankee Stadium, City, State/Province
• Date: Friday, July 15, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Amazon Prime Video

Red Sox vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 3.16 ERA): Nathan Eovaldi makes his first start since June 8 after landing on the IL with a back injury. He was off to a rollicking start in June, shutting out the opposition over 11 innings while recording 13 strikeouts and only one walk.

Jordan Montgomery (3-2, 3.19 ERA): Jordan Montgomery has earned only five decisions over 17 starts this season, despite going the requisite distance 15 times and averaging nearly 5 2-3 innings per start. However, the Yankees are 9-2 behind him in his last 11 outings.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Red Sox are 8-20 in their last 28 games against AL East opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees

Red Sox vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This game has the potential to turn into a slugfest, and the Yankees – being the No. 1 offense in baseball by runs per game (5.24) – are the wise choice to prevail.

Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi could get a quick hook from Boston manager Alex Cora, either due to the fact that he’s back off a one-month absence or because the Bombers are roughing him up.

Aaron Judge is a .391 lifetime hitter against Eovaldi (9-for-23) with a 1.025 OPS. Other Yankees with a 1.000 or better OPS against Eovaldi (min. 10 at-bats) include Anthony Rizzo (1.674), Matt Carpenter (1.300), and Josh Donaldson (1.046).

Even during a 1-4 stretch, the New York offense still produced 27 runs (5.4 per contest), so this unit is not at fault for the team’s recent struggles. It would also be hard to blame the starting pitching, including Jordan Montgomery, who held the Red Sox to two runs over 5 2-3 innings last Saturday despite Boston being fourth in OPS against lefties in 2022 (.779).

The bullpen has sprung its fair share of leaks in July, as this unit ranks 22nd by ERA (4.40) over the last two weeks. Closer Clay Holmes allowed four runs in a stunning loss to the Reds on Tuesday but immediately bounced back with a shutout inning over Cincinnati on Wednesday. Set-up man Michael King has been rock-solid for manager Aaron Boone, allowing only two earned runs over his last 16 appearances (19 1-3 innings).

As long as “Monty” can give the Yankees some length, the Bombers should pick up the “W” behind their two most reliable relievers. Trend bettors should note that the Red Sox are 4-10 in their last 14 meetings with the Yankees and 15-38 in their last 53 meetings in New York.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-165 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

The Yankees may rank No. 1 in the majors in runs per game, but the Red Sox are no slouches either, averaging the sixth-most runs in baseball (4.69). They should ensure that this game goes Over what appears to be a modest total for Yankee Stadium.

If the Boston bats get going early, Xander Bogaerts figures to be at the forefront, as he’s a career .484 hitter (15-for-31) against Montgomery. Alex Verdugo has been red-hot at the dish despite his club’s recent 2-8 mark, as he’s hitting .393 with five RBI over the last week.

Rafael Devers has also kept his OPS in the top five in majors (.978) by starting out July with a .964 OPS. He just hit his 20th tater of the season on Thursday night. There are plenty of trends to support a play on the Over here. The Yankees have exceeded the total in seven of their last eight overall and in six straight divisional tilts.

The Red Sox have gone 6-1 to the Over in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 6-2 in their last eight games.

Prediction: Over 8 (-115 at PointsBet)

Best bet

Oddsmakers are hanging a low number on this contest, but Over players shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Boston and New York met just last week at Fenway Park, and each contest was a barn-burner, with the Over cashing each time.

A grand total of 56 runs was scored, or 14 per contest. The teams are averaging a combined 9.93 runs per game, so that series was no fluke. The wind will be blowing right-to-left at over 10 mph to start the game, so while the hitters won’t have it at their backs, the breeze could push a ball destined for a deeper part of the ballpark.

That will certainly help right-handed power bats such as Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.  

Pick: Over 8 (-115 at PointsBet)

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