The Los Angeles Dodgers are just a win away from locking up a spot in the NLCS, and unlike years past, it appears Dave Roberts isn’t ready to punt this game and save his best arms for future games.
Instead, the LA skipper is banking on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who improved to 3-0 in his postseason career last week.
Although Yamamoto and the home side are listed as -160 favorites, my Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions break down why the pitching matchup will actually work in Philly’s favor tonight.
Spearheaded by right-hander Aaron Nola, here are our MLB picks for Game 3 on Wednesday, October 8.
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Phillies vs Dodgers Game 3 predictions
Who will win Phillies vs Dodgers Game 3
The Phillies’ offense has looked flat through two games, but a ground-ball pitcher with control issues should present a great matchup in Game 3 on Wednesday.
Aaron Nola isn’t exactly Philly’s ace, but he’s had a good enough history against the Dodgers to keep this one in range for his offense, which should have plenty of chances given its matchup and the Dodgers’ tired bullpen.
Phillies vs Dodgers best bet
Phillies moneyline (+150)
Believe it or not, Aaron Nola has actually been more or less fine in his postseason career. While he’s been an untrustworthy pitcher for years, he’s struck out 58 over 53 2/3 innings with a 4.02 ERA and carries a 5-4 record with the Philadelphia Phillies, winning six of his 10 playoff starts.
Against the Los Angeles Dodgers, too, things don’t look all that bad. He did give up two homers over six innings, the only time he met them this year, but surrendered just three runs in all with two strikeouts and a walk. That now brings his career ERA against L.A. to 4.31, but at Dodger Stadium, he’s pitched to a 3.76 ERA in four starts.
There’s at least some hope to be found in those numbers, and more than that, his profile as a low-walk, above-average strikeout pitcher should help him navigate a patient team in a part of the year where K:BB is kind for pitchers.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a trickier guy to figure out, surprisingly. Yes, his expected numbers and 29.4% strikeout rate glisten. He still ran a pedestrian 8.6% walk rate this season and issued three free passes to the Phillies to five strikeouts when he saw them in April. He owns a 2.84 ERA in his postseason career, but his 3.99 FIP tells the story of a man who’s too often victimized by walks and homers.
Philly may not have hit all that well on the whole against ground-ball pitchers like Yamamoto, but it did slug .396 to rank ninth in baseball this season. It’s going to need to recover in a big way here as it’s struck out in 30.1% of its plate appearances in this series, but a 9.6% walk rate helps them here against Yamamoto.
If Harrison Bader can return to the lineup, which seems possible, this team should be able to do enough to pull this one out. Keep in mind, if Nola’s able to keep this close, the Dodgers’ bullpen is full of issues.
Phillies vs Dodgers Game 3 same-game parlay (SGP)
There probably isn’t a better hitter to target in this game than J.T. Realmuto.
The Phillies’ backstop has been their best weapon against ground-ball pitchers this season, hitting .337 with just six walks in 111 plate appearances, which means we can be sure he’ll be swinging against Yamamoto.
Realmuto is also 1-for-2 off the righty in his career and has five hits in his last four games between the regular season and the playoffs.
Aaron Nola has struck out three in each of his 10 postseason starts, and while oddsmakers don’t anticipate him hanging around long in an elimination game, I think he’ll be in there long enough to hit this low number.
Nola finished the season with a 25.4% strikeout rate in September — his highest since April — and his whiff rate has remained above 25% in the last two months. He’s trending in the right direction.
Phillies vs Dodgers SGP (+425)
- Phillies moneyline (+150)
- JT Realmuto Over 0.5 hits (-152)
- Aaron Nola Over 2.5 strikeouts (-140)
Phillies vs Dodgers home run pick for Game 3
Teoscar Hernandez (+370)
I really like Bader here if he plays, but if we don’t get odds for him, I’m very comfortable going with Teoscar Hernandez again.
I realize there’s nothing bold about it, but he’s homered off Nola before, and despite a 3-for-14 line, Hernandez owns a .443 xSLG in this matchup with just one strikeout and one walk.
He’s running a .669 xSLG this postseason with three homers, and I don’t see any reason why Teo wouldn’t stop mashing the ball.
Phillies vs Dodgers Game 3 odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +235 | Los Angeles -160
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-160) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Phillies vs Dodgers trend
Los Angeles has hit the F5 moneyline in 21 of its last 26 home games (+15.45 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Phillies vs Dodgers and Game 3 info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, October 8, 2025 |
| First pitch | 9:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (5-10, 6.01 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-8, 2.49 ERA) |
Phillies vs Dodgers latest injuries
Phillies vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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